Research On Labor Supply In Northeast China Under The Background Of Aging Population With Lower Fertility

In recent years,the continuing ultra-low fertility rate,aging population and out-migrantion in Northeast China,have aggravated the level of labor supply in Northeast China.This article describes the situation of aging population with lower fertility in Northeast China and analyzes the labor supply in Northeast China from 1990 to 2017 and predicts the labor supply and population structure from 2020 to 2050 with the data from the 2010 census,based on data of 2010 population census and the statistical yearbook of China and Northeast China.This paper decomposes the influencing factors to the labor supply to determine the different periods of varied factors to the labor supply effect of.It shows that the labor supply in Northeast China has gradually increased from a slow speed to a rapid speed and then began to decrease.Demographic factors are the main factors that lead the reduction of labor supply in Northeast China.Among them,the labor supply in the Northeast China is largely dependent on a good population structure.As the life expectancy continues to extend,the young out-migrantion increases,the fertility rate declines,and the population structure continues to deteriorate,then the labor force supported by this factors will decrease rapidly.This paper uses the elements of population prediction method to predict the labor supply in Northeast China from 2020 to 2050.First,this paper uses the data mining methods to predict the population by age with three types of fertility plan: high,medium and low,referring to the United Nations latest population forecasting of China and the actual situation of Northeast China.Based on this,further considering the impact of out-migrantion,so as to revise the forecast results of the labor age population.Based on the trend of labor participation rates in Northeast China under the influence of aging,the total labor supply in Northeast China is finally predicted from 2020 to 2050.Forecasting indicates that no matter what fertility rate is adopted,the labor supply in the Northeast China will decline sharply in the future.By 2050,under the level of the medium plan,the labor supply will be reduced to 35 million people.