Study On Labor Supply Of Mid-aged And Older Under Population Aging

Population aging is a social phenomenon at the end of 20 Century,but also a major social problem in the 21 st century the world must face.Population age structure is divided into three types by the United Nations: young,adult and old type.In 2000,China has entered the old age structure of the population,and then aging population further exacerbated,the sixth national census in 2010 showed that the process of aging further accelerate,the elderly continue to develop in depth.In the old aging society,a shift in the population age structure,the proportion of elderly population increase,the proportion of working age population decline,the elderly dependency ratio rise sharply.These changes put forward the new challenges of social labor resources,social security,health care needs,pension services and other aspects.The most serious is that population aging resulting in reducing the labor resources,and rising the labor cost,and even labor shortage situation in the future,hindering economic development.Therefore,under the background of population aging research on the elderly labor supply has very realistic significance.In this paper,45 years old and above old people as the research object,we investigate the status of individual labor supply.For 45 years and above working conditions in the elderly,they belong to the retiring or already retired,their physical and psychological condition porn to changes greatly.In the elderly after retirement the main source of income is pension income,so in the economic factors,the pension and retirement pension benefit level influence to elderly people in retirement decisions and labor supply situation;the most important factor of non-economic aspects is the level of health for the elderly.Therefore,under the background of population aging,we study the pension insurance and health effects on the elderly labor supply.The purpose of the study is to reveal the basic characteristic of the labor supply of the elderly in China,to explore influencing factors of the elderly labor supply.The foothold is that under the background of population aging increase in the elderly labor supply,make full use of the elderly human capital resources,the continuation of the second demographic dividend.In the selection of indicators of labor supply considering the use of labor supply time,due to the data relating to domestic aspects of health economics is relatively scarce,most of the scholars in the study of labor supply generally use a binary variable of participating and non-participating to measure labor supply,but the state of health deteriorates or suffer adverse health impact does not necessarily make the workers to exit the labor market,the more likely is the workers reduced hours of work every day.Using the time of labor supply as dependent variables can improve the estimation accuracy,but also as a continuous variable,which is studied in this paper different from other scholars.This paper used data from the baseline survey data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey(CHARLS)in 2011 and 2013,empirical analysis the effects of pension and health of the elderly in the labor supply.In the pension section,we used the 2013 baseline survey data using Tobit model to test the influence of whether to participate in pension insurance to the total sample of elderly labor supply,then further use 2011 and 2013 years data to evaluate the new type Rural social endowment insurance system for elderly people in a rural area of labor supply effect.Because of the existence of “reverse causality” relationship between health and labor supply variables,leading to the endogeneity of health variables,in order to overcome the problems in the study of health effects on labor supply,we use data in 2011 and 2013,by constructing a simultaneous equations model using three stage least squares method(3SLS)regression,hope to get an unbiased and effective estimate.On the basis of the above normative analysis and empirical analysis,get the following conclusions:Firstly,the aging of the population will inevitably reduce the labor supply.On the one hand,because the aging population reflects the demographic changes,that is,in the working-age population in decline,falling-age population will reduce the number of workers;on the other hand,because of the aging of the population,the proportion of the elderly population increased,according to the life cycle theory,the inverted U-type labor participation rate curve,in this age group of the labor force participation rate is declining,the labor supply will not change the trend of decay in nature.From the real situation of China,the proportion of over 65 years old population showed a slow steady upward trend,and the overall labor force participation rate declined.With the change of time,different age groups of the labor force participation rate is declining,the aging population makes the labor supply is reduced.This fully shows that the aging population will inevitably lead to a reduction of labor supply.Secondly,Chinese pension system has obtained a rapid development,but the empty account problem,equity and efficiency losses and other issues threatening the sustainability of the system.After 30 years of exploration and development,our country has established for urban and rural residents pension insurance system and the urban workers basic old-age insurance system as the main body of the social endowment insurance system.During "12th Five Year Plan" period,the pension system reform was accelerated,new rural pension insurance and urban residents pension insurance system unified,urban workers' basic pension insurance system and institutions of the retirement system of the merger,between urban and rural areas,between regions,between departments to gradually realize the system can converge,pension the insurance coverage gradually expanded,the level of pension benefits gradually increased.However,the changing of population structure and economic growth slowdown for the endowment insurance system bring many challenges.The problem of sustainability,equity and efficiency loss will be highlighted in the thirteen five period.Thirdly,the endowment insurance has a significant negative effect on labor supply,to participate in insurance will reduce labor supply in the elderly,and the effect of pension on labor supply is highly significant,the rural's reduction is greater than the city.In the simultaneous equation model,the endowment insurance system reduce willingness of labor participate in the elderly and reduce labor supply time,but whether to participate the insurance impact on the overall health of the elderly in the sample is not significant.In the urban and rural sub-sample regression,in the city whether to participate in pension insurance on health impact is not significant statistically,but for the rural sample,participated in the pension insurance than not to participate in pension insurance in the elderly self-reported health level to-0.161.Fourth,the labor supply effects of the new rural pension insurance by PSM-DID,we find that participate the new rural pension insurance has no significant impact on total labor supply time of the elderly in rural areas.The regression results with different Tobit,whether to participate in the new rural pension insurance has a positive impact on agricultural labor supply time,participate in the new rural pension insurance will increase agricultural labor supply of rural elderly people,an increase of about 187.24 hours,according to eight hours a day standard working time calculation,approximately 23.4 days.The effect that participate in the new rural pension insurance has impact on agricultural labor supply time in rural elderly major come from small age samples.In other words,the 45-60 age of the individual to participate in the new rural pension insurance has significant effect on agricultural labor supply;agricultural labor supply of the elderly aged 60 and above was not significant.The possible reason as follow: First,the payment of the new rural pension insurance reduces the current elderly income levels,in order to obtain the same income they increase the labor supply;second,the elderly aged 60 and above can receive the amount of pension less,the basic pension for 55 yuan per person per month in 2009,in 2015 increased to 70 yuan.Fifth,the elderly labor supply in time and health influence each other,and interact as both cause and effect.The self-reported health better,their participation in labor time longer;older labor time is long,its assessment of their health status is better.Deterioration of the health level of urban effect on labor supply decreased to a greater extent than rural;but in turn the labor supply effect on health in the elderly has gap between rural and urban.The rural areas is large than urban areas,and significant level in rural areas(at the 5% confidence level)is higher than that of urban(on 10% significant).Sixth,in the simultaneous equation model,chronic disease,long sleep,smoking and drinking introduced health equation.Through the 3SLS method regression,we find that those have a significant impact on health.One or more chronic health level in the elderly is worse than did not suffer from chronic diseases.Smoking is harmful to health has been fully confirmed,but we found that proper drinking is beneficial to health.In conclusion,this paper uses CHARLS micro survey data,using appropriate micro econometrics methods to prove the effect of endowment insurance and the health in the labor supply of the elderly,for studying relationship of endowment insurance,health and elderly labor supply provides empirical evidence and research clues.Finally,we put forward countermeasures suggestion to improve the level of health and increase labor supply in the elderly.Specifically: first,under the background of aging population,on the one hand,through the reform of the pension system,solve China's labor supply decreased or even future shortages of labor force;on the other hand,enhance the ability to pay pension insurance to ensure continuity of Chinese pension insurance system,and to provide evidence for delaying the retirement pension the empty account problem.Secondly,enhance and improve the health level of urban and rural residents,increasing the health of human capital in the elderly,and ultimately realize the healthy old age and China economic sustained and healthy development.