Study On The Influence Of Population Aging On Labor Supply In Inner Mongolia

According to the seventh census data,the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in Inner Mongolia rose from 7.56% to 13.05% in 2010.The population structure showed obvious aging characteristics,and the total fertility rate was significantly lower than the replacement level and far below the normal population.The replacement of water from generation to generation has led to a decline in the size of the working-age population,which has put a certain pressure on the supply of effective labor in Inner Mongolia.Therefore,studying the effect of population aging in Inner Mongolia on labor supply,and predicting demographic changes and labor supply trends in Inner Mongolia have certain theoretical and practical significance for Inner Mongolia to actively respond to population aging and improve effective labor supply.Main research conclusions:(1)The fertility rate is hovering at a low level.The birth rate of Inner Mongolia has shown diminishing dynamic changes from 2000 to 2019.Decreased from 9.9‰ in 2000 to 8.2‰ in 2019;(2)The aging of the population has intensified.The prediction results under the three different scenarios show that Inner Mongolia will enter a super-aged society in different years;(3)The supply of effective labor is insufficient.From 2021 to 2050,the working-age population in Inner Mongolia gradually shrinks,the age structure of the labor force continues to age,the proportion of the elderly labor force continues to rise,and the labor supply scale shows a downward trend;(4)Population aging is negatively correlated with labor supply.Empirical analysisMain research contents:(1)Using comparative analysis method and general statistical description method to analyze the population aging and labor supply in Inner Mongolia;(2)Based on the "inverted pyramid" theory,using cohort factor population forecasting methods and linear trend extrapolation methods to predict the development trend of Inner Mongolia’s population structure and labor supply from 2021 to2050;(3)Use historical data and combine labor participation rate,population aging(aging coefficient)and other variables to establish a time series multiple linear regression model,To study the impact of population aging in Inner Mongolia on labor supply.Use the forecast data under the medium plan and the labor supply forecast data to analyze the effect of the future population aging in Inner Mongolia on the labor supply,and compare the results with the empirical analysis of historical data.of historical data shows that for every 1 percentage point increase in population aging in Inner Mongolia,the labor participation rate decreases by about 0.363 percentage points;the empirical results of forecast data show that for every 1 percentage point increase in population aging in Inner Mongolia,labor participation rate decreases About 0.107 percentage points.The results of the empirical analysis of the forecast data are consistent with the results of the historical data analysis.It further confirms that the aging population of Inner Mongolia has a negative impact on labor supply.Main policy recommendations:(1)Increase the fertility rate and improve related supporting measures;(2)Establish and improve the long-term care insurance system;(3)Prudently implement the delayed retirement system;(4)Expand the application of artificial intelligence technology to ease the supply of labor;(5)Strengthen the cultivation of human resources and improve the plan for training talents for elderly care services;(6)Make full use of effective elderly human resources to increase the supply of labor.