Study On The Fluctuation Of Chinese Economic Cycle Based On The NK-DSGE Model

Against the backdrop of the complex global economic situation,the world economy has entered a state of weakness and China's economic development has entered a new normal,shifting from rapid development to high-quality development.Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has been developing at a high speed and is characterized by great volatility.Violent economic fluctuations will affect residents' happiness.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance for a country to maintain stable and high-speed economic development.In order to understand the factors driving China's economic fluctuation and its mechanism of action,for the country's macroeconomic policy Suggestions,this article will romer's endogenous productivity growth framework into a medium-sized new Keynesian DSGE model,and join the nominal price stickiness and wage rigidity "friction" to China in 1998 ～ 2017 all macroeconomic sequence cycle trend decomposition,to study the short-term volatility and long-term trends.Through the research,the important factors that influence the common long-term trend are obtained.The results show that :(1)the 2008 financial crisis not only caused the recession of economic cycle,but also caused the serious stagnation of economic growth;(2)The increase of R&D success probability will have a direct impact on improving the rate of technological progress and an indirect impact on stimulating R&D investment;(3)The impact of R&D probability of success has different characteristics from the impact of TFP.The impact of R&D probability of success on the economy is more slow and requires a long cycle.(4)In the historical decomposition of the common trend,we find that the common growth trend of macroeconomic variables is mainly affected by the impact of R&D success probability,and the main reason for China's economic downturn in the 2008 global financial crisis is the reduction of R&D success probability.Therefore,this article suggested that the government should vigorously support policies promulgated,help enterprises to carry out innovation activities,to speed up the financial market,improve the service efficiency of funds,to research and development funds into the entity enterprise,and countries should further strengthen the support of high technology and new technology enterprise r&d activities,strive to develop high-tech industry with world leading technology ability.