Study On The Relationship Between The Changes Of Industrial Structure And Economic Growth In Shandong Province

By the end of 2016,the Shandong province economy continues to increase,comprehensive strength is also growing,the industrial structure to realize the change of the "321" for the first time.In the top ten provinces,Shandong in Guangdong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Hunan,is the fifth province realize the "231" to "321" the transformation of industrial structure.Behind these achievements,analyzing the change of industrial structure and economic growth is the existence of long-term and stable relations,as well as the relationship between them is a one-way causal or two-way causal relationship,find out the concrete countermeasures to further promote the upgrading of industrial structure and promote economic growth is very important and necessary.Paper,therefore,the main task is to 1978 years,three times industry value and GDP of multivariate linear regression,find them from the perspective of theoretical and empirical two-way interactive relationship.This paper summarizes the related literature at home and abroad,and established a research framework;Theoretically discusses the change of industrial structure and the influence factors of economic growth and the relationship between the two;In 1978-2015 in Shandong province industrial structure change and economic growth in a variety of indicators and methods are described and analysis;In the empirical part,the integrated use of co-integration model and error correction model and granger causality test and other econometric methods,for the change of industrial structure and economic growth in Shandong province since the reform and opening up of the relationship are analyzed.The empirical results show that: first,in the short term,the first industrial output increased by one percent of GDP increased by one percent,the second industry output value of the one percent increase in GDP increased by 0.44%,a one percent increase in output value of the tertiary industry GDP will increase by 0.59%.Second,there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between them.Third,the first industry of Shandong province and the granger causality of economic growth does not exist interaction,the second industry and the tertiary industry and the granger causality of economic growth there is interactive.Finally,the paper according to the theoretical research and empirical results,from how topromote industrial structure optimization promotes the economic growth of countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward.