Investment And Benefit Evaluation Of LF Wind Power Project

With the development of social economy in our China,the dual pressures of energy and environment are becoming more and more apparent.In order to solve the environmental and energy problems we are facing,the adjustment of energy structure and the improvement of energy efficiency are particularly important.It is urgent to develop clean renewable alternative energy.Wind power now is a relatively mature technology in the development and utilization of new energy in the world,and it has the prospect of large-scale production and operation and commercial development.After more than 10 years of rapid development,China has formed a complete and healthy wind power industry chain,and the cost of domestic wind power development has kept on decreasing.According to the energy development strategy action plan issued by the State Council(2014-2020 years),it is expected that in 2020,the capacity of wind power installed in China will reach 200 million kilowatts,and the price for network wind power will be equivalent to that from coal-fired power plant.On the basis of summarizing the current situation of the development of wind power industry both at home and abroad,this paper analyzes the development level of wind power at the present stage in China,and takes the LF wind power project in the western of Jilin Province as the research object,combining the wind energy resources and the construction conditions of the project,and carries out the investment and financing analysis,the cost income analysis,the profit and the debt paying ability analysis and uncertainty analysis,and then analyze and determine whether the LF wind power project can basically meet the economic requirements by parity accessing as coal-fired power projects.The construction scale of LF wind power project is 50 MW,the construction period of the project is 15 months,and the project operation period is 20 years.Through the analysis and calculation of this article,the total investment of LF wind power project under the present technical and price level is about 400 million 540 thousand yuan,and the annual average net amount of electricity is about 140 million kWh.According to the price of 0.3731 yuan /kWh,the annual electricity generation income of the LF wind power project is 522,340,000 yuan(VAT contained).The IRR for whole project is 7.125%,the IRR for capital is 12.74%,the NPV for whole project is 6 million 720 thousand yuan,and the NPV for capital is 32 million 63 thousand and 500 yuan,the ROI is 5.03%,and the ROE is 12.36%.The analysis and calculation structure shows that the financial internal revenue rate of LF wind power project is slightly larger than the industry benchmark yield index,and the NPV for whole project and for capital are both on above of zero.The investment recovery period is less than the industry standard base.It shows that the profitability of LF wind power project can basically meet the economic requirements by parity accessing as coal-fired power projects.After the single factor sensitivity analysis,when the investment in the LF wind power project increased by 10%,the IRR for whole project was reduced to 6.12% and the IRR for capital was reduced to 8.64%.When the net electricity or electricity price decreased by 10% in the year of the project,the IRR for whole project was reduced to 5.86%,and the IRR for whole capital was reduced to 7.52%.Sensitivity analysis shows that LF wind power project just have a weak ability to resist risks.Therefore,at this stage,it is suggested to give priority for investing and building wind power projects which are better than LF wind farm on wind speed and construction conditions in Jilin Province.The research results of this paper will provide an argument for decision of wind power project in the western of Jilin Province,and promote the process of wind power projects in Jilin Province on parity accessing.