| China's export trade began to develop rapidly after the Reform and Opening-up,the export trade volume was almost 17 billion yuan in 1978 and increased to almost 15.4 trillion yuan in 2017.China become a export powerhouse in a short time and under this background,the research on the factors affecting China's export trade has become an important topic that the academia needs to study.Based on the perspective of fiscal decentralization and demographic dividend,this paper explains the influence mechanism of fiscal decentralization and demographic dividend on export trade,and establishes an empirical test of the provincial panel data model to enrich the research on the influencing factors of China's export trade.First,the current situation of China's export trade was studied from the perspective of the trade volume,trade structure,ways of trade,trade subject and layout.The study found that the scale of China's export trade has been increasing,but the growth rate has slowed down in recent years.In the structure of export commodities,the proportion of industrial manufactured goods is larger,the proportion of industrial manufactured goods in China's total export commodities is increasing,and the proportion of the primary products is decreasing,and the proportion of the primary products to our country's total export commodities is decreasing.Besides,in the structure of export commodities,technology intensive products account for the largest proportion.The total export of resource intensive,labor intensive and technology intensive products is increasing,but the proportion of the export of resource intensive products to the total export volume has gradually declined.The proportion of general trade in China's export trade mode is increasing,while the proportion of processing trade is decreasing,which shows that the adjustment of China's export trade mode has been effective.The main body of China's export trade is state-owned enterprises,foreign direct investment enterprises and other enterprises,and the absolute advantage is the foreign direct investment enterprise.China's export trade can be divided into eastern,central and western three parts,The export and economic development of the eastern region are fast after the reform and opening up,while the export and economic development of the central and western regions are relatively slow.In general,the growth of China's export trade is slowing down and the original demographic dividend and fiscal decentralization advantage are weakening,and there are problems with insufficient dynamic mechanism.Then,the influence mechanism of fiscal decentralization and demographic dividend on export trade is analyzed and the empirical test is carried out.The study found that fiscal decentralization is an incentive factor for expanding export scale,which can stimulate export competition of local governments,promote import and export growth by attracting FDI,and increase export trade by configuring financial assets to export industries.Demographic dividend will also promote the development of export trade.As the motive force of the development of China's export trade,the demographic dividend will affect the scale and structure of our export trade.It will also attract foreign direct investment as a resource advantage,and promote the growth of import and export trade through direct and indirect effects,and increase savings by raising savings.The rate thus indirectly promotes the development of import and export trade,at the same time,it will promote the growth of import and export trade by promoting enterprises to choose export oriented strategy by promoting the development of industrialization and urbanization.The empirical results show that fiscal decentralization and demographic dividend will indeed positively promote the development of export trade,which is consistent with the theoretical expectation.The entry of foreign direct investment promotes the export growth by directly increasing the export and indirectly promoting the export of Chinese enterprises.The improvement of industrialization level will help to improve China's export comparative advantage,and also contribute to the structural adjustment and optimization and upgrading of China's export trade industry,which will lead to the development of China's exports.The improvement of marketization level can reduce the transaction cost of the export enterprises,which will help to increase the export and promote the development of China's export trade.The improvement of the transportation infrastructure has reduced the logistics cost of the enterprise,thus reducing the fixed cost of the export enterprises,and thus conducive to the growth of China's export trade.As a new factor and comparative advantage,R&D investment can promote the development of China's export trade from both breadth and depth.Finally,in order to keep the steady and healthy development of China's export trade,the government departments should not only further adjust the financial and tax system,but also strengthen the investment of human capital,improve the quality of the workers,change the demographic dividend into talent dividend and promote the transformation and upgrading of the export trade.At the same time,we should increase the investment in R & D and increase the the quality of export products,makes R & D animportant driving force for the development of export trade. |
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