Study On The Influence Of Demographic Dividend On The Transformation And Upgrading Of Equipment Manufacturing Industry In Heilongjiang Province

In China's New Norma,the level of economic development in Heilongjiang Province has been in a relatively low state.On March 2,2016,the Fourth Session of the CPPCC National Committee has already put the issue of "Upgrading the Industrial Transformation and Upgrading of the Three Provinces in Northeast China" as the key issues.Equipment manufacturing industry as the basis for industrial development,its transformation and upgrading has great significance of the economic development in Heilongjiang Province.There are many factors that affect the transformation and upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry.The demographic dividend is one of the main factors.Especially in today which is called "science and technology is the primary productive force",the industrial transformation and upgrading is not only dependent on the population quantity and structure,but also the population quality.The demographic dividend experienced both the traditional demographic dividend and the new population dividend for two periods,The disappearance of Lewis's inflections marks the disappearance of the traditional demographic dividend,which also marks the arrival of the new population dividend era,The traditional demographic dividend explains the economic growth from the perspective of structural changes in population.Its typical characteristic is the increase of the proportion of working-age population and the decrease of social support coefficient.However,from the population statistics of Heilongjiang Province in the past 15 years,the proportion of the working age population had become smaller,social dependency ratio showed a downward trend after growth.And is expected in the next 15 years,this trend will become more apparent.In the new population dividend period,the growth rate of the labor force gradually slowed down,the quality of the working population continues to improve,labor-intensive industries cannot become the advantages of industrial development,equipment manufacturing transformation and upgrading more need the quality of labor to promote.The article is divided into three parts:The first part is the theoretical overview.Through combing the theory of industrial transformation and upgrading and the related meaning of population dividend,this paper studies the mechanism of population promotes industrial transformation and upgrading,and the intrinsic link between the dividend of the population with education and employment,At the same time in the theoretical part also describes the industrial upgrading and the relationship between education and employment.The second part is the empirical part.The Pearson correlation method,the multiple linear regression method and the Granger test method are used to analyze the data which was based on the objective data of Heilongjiang-2015 Statistical Yearbook.The traditional demographic dividend and the new population dividend are studied in Heilongjiang Province The Influence of Industrial Transformation in Equipment Manufacturing Industry.The results show that,firstly,without affecting other complicated factors,the influence of the following factors on the output value of the equipment manufacturing industry is from small to small.The ratio of the total dependency ratio>the old age dependency ratio>the labor force investment>the fixed assets investment,and the total dependency ratio>the labor force investment>the fixed assets investment.The Secondly,there is a significant negative correlation between the number of graduates of higher education and the number of employed persons.The number of employed persons in the equipment manufacturing industry does not increase with the increase of the number of higher education graduates,and the demand for higher education talents is insufficient.Finally,there is no Granger causality between the output growth rate of the equipment manufacturing industry and the growth rate of the employed population.That is,the growth of the output value of the equipment manufacturing industry is not the reason for the increase of the employed population.The growth of the employed population is also not the reason for the value-added of the equipment manufacturing industry.According to the empirical analysis of the second part,after making clear the impact of the demographic dividend on the industrial transformation and upgrading,the author puts forward some reasonable suggestions,especially for the further excavation of the advantages of the demographic dividend,the creation of the demographic dividend condition,the improvement of the education system,Improve labor input.