Research On Forecast Of Housing Demand In Yangzhou City Based On Combination Model

Since the reform and opening up,China's real estate market has developed rapidly.The country has adopted a series of real estate control policies based on local conditions.With the development of urbanization,urban renewal and upgrading of residential consumption,there would still be room for the development of real estate until 2020 or more.Under this situation,the overall growth rate of investment in real estate development in Yangzhou has been robust and the land price has continued to rise.According to the changes in sale prices of 70 large and medium-sized cities in October 2017 released by the National Bureau of Statistics,and the housing price in Yangzhou rose about 0.5%month-on-month in October 2017.Since August 2015,the housing price of Yangzhou continued to rise for 27 months.For the steady development of real estate,Yangzhou Bank's housing loans and commercial mortgages have been continuously tightened.On the one hand,it has increased the down payment threshold for purchases.On the other hand,it has tightened the amount of loan issuance.Besides,the land market management and the housing price management have also been gradually strengthened.Moreover,the second-hand housing market transactions gradually regulate the behavior.Therefore,the demand forecast for the housing market in Yangzhou will have very important practical significance.It will be helpful to predict whether the residential real estate market in Yangzhou will continue to exhibit the trend of "Supply and demand are booming,prices are stable,and inventory is declining" within the next few years.This thesis combines the social and economic development status of Yangzhou City and the population status quo to discuss its influence on the housing demand of Yangzhou City.Firstly,according to literature review and questionnaire survey,the key influencing factors were selected.The thesis screens out 10 key factors affecting the future housing demand,including sales of commercial housing,gross regional product,per capita disposable income of urban residents,per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents,balance of savings deposits of urban and rural residents,real estate development investment,the total number of population at the end of the year,the average household population per urban household,the urbanization rate,and the average per capita housing construction area.Next,the analysis to the correlation between various factors and housing demand was conducted using the grey correlation analysis.Based on this,an indicator system for influencing factors of residential demand was constructed.Then use the grey GM(1,1)model in time series analysis and the multivariate stepwise regression model in the causality prediction to forecast the housing demand.The research results show that the forecast results of the model are that the demand for housing in Yangzhou will continue to rise.At the same time,the forecast results of GM(1,1)model and grey multivariate model are used as the lower and upper limits of the forecast of housing demand in Yangzhou City in the future.This result can reduce the bias that may occur with a single method,making the credibility of the research results relatively high.By comparing and analyzing the forecast results,it is more scientific and reasonable to forecast changes in the housing demand in Yangzhou City.It could be seen that integrate the status quo of the residential real estate market in Yangzhou City,in the long run,Yangzhou City must continuously improve the housing system,guarantee the balance of supply and demand,establish a housing supply system for both renting and purchasing,standardize the housing market development model,and accelerate the development of institutionalized and large-scale enterprises.It is necessary to improve and innovate the supporting systems of land,finance,taxation,legal system and market supervision.Ultimately makes the development of the real estate market more stable and healthy.