The Influence Factors And Forecast Analysis Of The Demand Of China And Europe International Route

With the integration of international economy and the relaxation of European visa policies,the number of tourists in China and Europe hits a record high,which greatly stimulates the market demand for China-Europe routes.Domestic and foreign airlines have successively opened a large number of direct flights between China and Europe.As the hub airports continue to mature,the transit market has developed rapidly,resulting in increased competition in the China-Europe route market.At present,most scholars focus on the study of domestic routes market demand forecasting methods,and there are relatively few studies specifically targeting China-Europe international route market demand.It is urgent to conduct studies on the influencing factors of China-Europe international route market demand and route demand forecasting methods.Firstly,this paper clarifies the demand impact indicators by combing the literature on the factors affecting the route market demand,and combining the characteristics of China-Europe route markets;secondly,using grey theory to build a multivariable demand forecasting model,and using actual course data and Markov model to verify and optimize the forecasting model.This article focuses on the following aspects:First of all,the domestic and foreign literatures on the research of the market demand for railway routes are collated,and the applicability,advantages and disadvantages of the main models are compared and analyzed.Secondly,a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the status quo of the China-Europe route market from the perspective of major carriers and input capacity,transit markets,major hub airports and major cities.By sorting out the factors influencing the market demand of the routes in the existing literature and combining the characteristics of international routes,the macro and micro perspectives are used to extract the influencing factors of the market demand of China-Europe routes.Thirdly,the grey correlation method is used to optimize similar indicators in the same level,and factor analysis is used to reduce the dimension of the indicators and extract comprehensive factors to solve the multi-factor collinear problem.Finally,a grey multivariate model is constructed to forecast the market demand of China-Europe routes,and the feasibility of the model is validated by using the actual data of the Beijing-Paris route.The forecast results of the grey multivariate model are modified by using the Markov model.In summary,this paper uses factor analysis to extract two comprehensive factors.The gray multivariate model constructed achieves first-order prediction accuracy.Through the feasibility test,the prediction accuracy of the gray multivariate model which has been optimized by the Markov model has a further increase.This article studies the demand of China-Europe route market,which helps airlines to accurately grasp the market capacity,improve the efficiency of resource use and international competitiveness,and provide a theoretical basis for the scientific deployment of route capacity.The inadequacies of this paper are: only the introduction of quantitative indicators,lack of discussion of qualitative indicators;due to data acquisition constraints,route performance indicators such as passenger load factor,fuel consumption,etc.are not added to the model,finally,other gray multivariate model optimization methods need further study.