Research On The Influence Of Rural Social Endowment Insurance Level On The Sustainability Of Local Finance In China

The State Council of China decided to establish a new rural social endowment insurance system in rural areas in 2009,which signified our country formally established actual social endowment insurance system that fit condition of our country's rural areas.It would contribute to perfect the social security system of China in the new era of socialism,solve the "Three Rural Issues" and Complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects.The characteristic of the new rural social endowment insurance system mainly expressed that government subsidy as one of the main fund-raising channels of the insurance fund,which clarifies the responsibility of the government in the rural social endowment insurance system.Currently,the level of rural social endowment insurance system is low that can not realize the basic goal,Guaranteeing the basic needs of life.The local governments should maintain its fiscal sustainability under the premise of increasing subsidies forrural social endowment insurance in order to further improve the level of treatment of pension.Is that feasible?This is the urgent problem that need to study for us.This paper mainly focuses on two key words — the level of rural social endowment insurance and the sustainability of local public finance.Combined with the characteristics of China's economic and social development,we analyze the relationship of them with multiple dimensions,in order to get a more comprehensive understanding.First of all,this paper sorts out the existing research results on social security insurance moderation,fiscal sustainability and the relationship of them.Based on previous studies,we determined the research perspective and marginal contribution.Then we define the two objects of this study,the level of rural social endowment insurance and the sustainability of local public finance,and identify the theoretical basis to clarify the research boundary.Further,this paper makes a thorough and detailed analysis of the relationship of them in three aspects including present situation,empirical examination and future prediction.The analysis of present situation mainly based on the review of the history of the rural social security system,summarize the characteristics of the current rural social endowment insurance system and chiefly focus on financial support characteristics of the rural social security system.Through the analysis of the current situation of local financial support,I find that the external and internal factors affecting the sustainability of local public finance contains three elements,the level of rural social endowmentinsurance,population ageing and migration and the dilemma of local public finance.The part of Empirical analysis use panel VAR model and the experiential data of the "new rural social endowment insurance" system,statistically examined the relationship of them.It find that under the current level of protection,the rural social security system will not threaten the sustainability of local public finance.However the result will differences,if the region is divided.Midwest of china are difference from the whole country and eastern region.The part of future prediction mainly Dynamic forecast local public financial sustainability basing on the changes in the level of agricultural insurance protection.The prediction analysis is based on the dynamic prediction of the local financial sustainability basing on difference level rural social endowment insurance.The financial situation of rural social endowment insurance will lead the responsibility of local government financial subsidies.This paper will evaluate the government fiscal sustainability situation in future according to fund income that come from personal account and basic pension and fund expenditure that meeting difference level rural social endowment insurance.The evaluation based on financial risk warning system.The study find that the sustainability of local public finance exist gap under different levels of security.Finally,the conclusion of this paper is drawn through the analysis of present situation,empirical examination and future prediction,so as to put forward the policy suggestions.The improvement of the level of rural social security under the sustainable development of local public finance need to meet two aspects,adjusting the current rural social endowment insurance system and enhancing local fiscal subsidy capacity.