Research On The Influencing Factors Of Real Estate Housing Price In Nanchang From The Perspective Of Supply-side Reform

Under the background of China's economy entering a new normal,it is particularly important for the real estate industry to maintain its stable and healthy development.However,since the central government first adjusted its real estate in 2005,housing prices have not dropped.High prices lead to a large backlog of commodity houses across the country,while residents can not afford or buy suitable housing,failing to improve living conditions.To this end,in 2015,in response to the current problems facing China's economy,the central government put forth suggestions on the structural reform of the supply side,pointing out a new road for China's economic development.Therefore,based on the supply-side structural reform of housing,this paper,based on multiple factors,combined with theoretical analysis,established a vector error correction model to study the key factors affecting housing prices in Nanchang.On this basis,put forward the corresponding policies and suggestions to promote the healthy and stable development of real estate in Nanchang.The results of this paper also have reference value for the real estate development of other second-tier cities.In the context of the new economic normal and supply-side reform,this paper confirms that the research logic of this paper is as follows,First of all,the concept of supply-side reform of real estate and real estate should be clearly defined,and the relationship between real estate macro-control theory and supply-side reform theory and the two should be expounded.Secondly,it analyzes the current situation and trend of the real estate market development in our country,draws the characteristics of the real estate market in our country on the basis of analyzing the real estate market in our country,analyzes the development phase of the real estate market in Nanchang,analyzes the characteristics of the real estate market in our country and the real estate market in Nanchang,On the basis of this,we use the basic statistical data to analyze the rapid development of real estate market in Nanchang and the problems existing in the development of real estate in Nanchang.Then,the paper analyzes the influential factors of real estate housing prices in Nanchang City.Based on this,we construct and select the time series data of Nanchang City,Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2016 and build a Vector Error Correction Model(VECM)to study the real estate market prices in Nanchang City and its influencing factors Between the short-term dynamic relationship;Finally,based on empirical results are given relevant policy recommendations.The result of this paper shows that there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between price of Nanchang's real estate market and its influencing factors through cointegration analysis and error correction model estimation.The Granger causality test shows that the sales volume of residential housing in Nanchang is one-way Granger reason for the price of residential housing in Nanchang.The average sales price of residential housing in Nanchang is the one-way Granger reason for per capita disposable income in Nanchang.There is no Granger causality between other variables.Through the analysis of impulse response,the standard deviation of the sales volume of residential houses in Nanchang has a positive impact on the real estate market price in Nanchang.A standard deviation of per capita disposable income in Nanchang City has a positive impact on the initial stage of residential commodity prices and a negative impact in the latter part of the year.The proportion of investment in real estate development in Nanchang has a positive impact on the real estate market price,but this effect is getting smaller and smaller.Overall,the sales of residential real estate in Nanchang City,per capita disposable income on the real estate market prices greater impact,while the proportion of real estate development investment on the real estate market prices less affected.