Study On Prediction And Countermeasures Of College Delivery Business

Express delivery industry,as the representative of the "new economy",is one of the key industries in China.Nowadays,express delivery is developing rapidly.However,the academic research related to it is not enough,especially about the university express delivery,which is more and more important now.Teachers and students in colleges and universities are an important group of customers of online shopping.The quality of express service to this special group will directly affect the teaching order and the quality of students and students 'campus life.This study selected the prediction about the quantity of the college express delivery as the research direction.And the Anhui University of Science and Technology was taken as an example to carry out the research.According to the original data of daily quantity in the service center(including the data of daily connection and collection from 2017.9 to 2018.1),the traditional Grey Model,the Improved Grey Model and the Grey-Markov Model were chosen to predict the daily delivery volume from 2018.9 to 2019.1 for the reason of high random fluctuation,less obvious internal regular and little historical statistics.The improvement of the Improved Grey Model was to adjust the background value of the traditional Grey Model,and the Grey-Markov Model combined the grey prediction theory with Markov-Chain theory.The three predictive models used in this study have good predictive effects for both random data and little historical statistical data.The selected data also showed in this study that they could pass the test of grey prediction theory and Markov-chain theory.Therefore,the selection of prediction model is scientific and reasonable.The final prediction results showed that,above three models,the Grey-Markov Model was the best method to predict the quality of the university express.Because the college express enterprises generally face the problem of violent fluctuation of business volume,the problem of idle waste caused by insufficient business volume,the decline of service quality caused by the explosion of business volume and the phenomenon of disrupting campus order coexist.Based on the above practical issues and the prediction of business volume,this study put forward the corresponding operational measures.First,according to the forecast results of the business volume,college express enterprises should actively introduce modern scientific and technological means.Second,they ought to choose multiple distribution methods to combine with each other.Third,their own flow resources should be made full use of.