Research On Industrial Structure Transformation Of The Northeast Old Industrial Base Under "New Normal"

After the reform and opening up,the Chinese economy has experienced strong growth for 30 years.However,affected by the financial crisis,economic growth has gradually slowed since 2008,and economic development has entered the “new normal”.The old industrial base in northeast China has made historic and outstanding contributions to the development of China's national economy.However,after entering the “new normal” period,the Northeast economy has frequently experienced a growth dilemma.In particular,the “economic decline” in 2014 has triggered even more concern among the government and scholars about the “New Northeast phenomenon”.The structural imbalance of the industrial structure in the old industrial base in northeast China was further highlighted during the “new normal” period and became one of the major obstacles to economic growth.Therefore,the successful transformation of the industrial structure of the northeast old industrial base is the most important task in cracking the “New Northeast phenomenon”.This article first compares historical and vertical comparisons of successful cases and failure cases of the industrial restructuring of old industrial bases abroad,and use the induction method to sum up the successful experience of the international “Rust Belt Revival” and the failure of the transition,then start with the concept of the “new normal” and the transformation of industrial structure,and analyze the overview of the industrial structure of the old industrial base in the northeast.Using Deviate-Share Analysis(SSM)to characterize the evolution of the industrial structure of the northeast old industrial base under different economic systems,and put forward the issue of industrial structure under the “new normal”.Secondly,the use of literature research and comparative research methods to analyze the causes of the industrial restructuring of the old industrial base in the northeast under the “new normal” from the international,domestic,and regional levels.Afterwards,the industrial structure is advanced and rationalized as the goal of industrial restructuring,and systematically analyze the relationship between motivation and goals.Thirdly,using Delphi method to identify the main hindrance factors at the government,regional,industrial,and corporate levels.From a double internal and external perspective,analyze the hindrance of blocking factors to the transformation of the industrial structure of the old industrial base in Northeast China.Then use the Bayesian model average(BMA)method to quantify the degree of hindrance of blocking factors to the transformation of the industrial structure of the northeast old industrial base during the period of the “new normal”.Finally,according to the above research conclusions,we propose the breakthrough path of the transformation of the industrial structure of the northeast old industrial base under the “new normal” from the institutional,locational,industrial,and corporate levels.