Research On The Influencing Factors And Prediction Of Energy Consumption In Cities Along The Belt And Road In China

Energy is an important guarantee for national economic development.With the rapid development of national economy,the demand for energy is increasing,and the relationship between energy supply and demand in China is increasingly tense.It is extremely urgent to vigorously promote the energy revolution,build a clean,lowcarbon,safe and efficient energy system,and achieve green economic development.In order to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of China’s economy,it is necessary to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy intensity.The Belt and Road Initiative has opened up a new pattern of China’s opening-up,promoted wider,higher and deeper regional cooperation among the participating countries,provided new opportunities for deepening national energy cooperation,and helped accelerate China’s energy reform process.Cities along the Belt and Road are at the forefront of a new round of opening-up,and the Belt and Road Initiative is likely to have a profound impact on their energy consumption.The research on the influencing factors of energy consumption in cities along the Belt and Road will supplement and improve the theoretical research of regional energy consumption to a certain extent,and have a certain theoretical guiding significance for the sustainable development of urban energy in China.By reviewing relevant literatures on energy consumption at home and abroad,it is found that domestic and foreign scholars have drawn different conclusions on the influencing factors of energy consumption.Based on this,this paper selects panel data of 13 cities along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2019 to build a two-way fixed effect model to explore the comprehensive impact of multiple factors on urban energy consumption.Then,panel data of 8 cities along the Belt and Road and 3 cities not along the Belt and Road from 2009 to 2017 were selected to establish a dual difference model to explore the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on energy consumption in different cities.According to the analysis results,from 2000 to 2019,energy consumption in cities along the Belt and Road in China showed an increasing trend,except for Qingdao and Xiamen,which decreased year by year.GDP,trade openness and industrial structure have significant positive influence on energy consumption,among which GDP has the most prominent influence.FDI,technological level,population size and urbanization rate can reduce the energy consumption,and population size has the greatest inhibitory effect on energy consumption.In terms of policy effects,the Belt and Road Initiative has a significant dampening effect on energy consumption in cities along the routes.Secondly,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of energy intensity of cities along the Belt and Road.By selecting panel data of 13 cities along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2019,a bidirectional fixed effect model is constructed to explore the comprehensive impact of multiple factors on urban energy intensity.The results show that,foreign direct investment,trade openness,urbanization level and technological level can reduce energy consumption intensity,while industrial structure and population size can improve energy intensity.Finally,the energy consumption data of 13 cities along the Belt and Road from2000 to 2019 are selected,and the GM(1,1)model is established based on the grey prediction theory to predict the energy consumption trend of cities along the Belt and Road in the next 10 years.The results show that the energy consumption of Guangzhou,Hefei,Ningbo,Shanghai,Tianjin and Chongqing will increase exponentially from 2020 to 2029,except for Qingdao and Xiamen,which will decrease year by year.However,the growth trend is slower than that of the previous 20 years.Based on the above conclusions,this paper suggests to unswervingly promote the "Belt and Road" initiative,and improve the radiation capacity of the "Belt and Road" initiative,and comprehensively improve urban energy consumption;Actively attract foreign direct investment,especially high-quality foreign investment in high and new technology,give full play to the role of foreign direct investment technology spillover to reduce energy consumption,and achieve high-quality economic development;Increasing technological innovation and research,especially innovation new technologies,to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption;Focus on speeding up the process of urbanization,continue to promote the process of new urbanization,fully tap the potential of energy saving in all aspects of the process of urbanization;Adjust the industrial structure,increase the proportion of added value of the tertiary industry in GDP,and gradually phase out industries with high energy consumption and high pollution to promote industrial restructuring.