| Oil trade is a crucial part of the world economy,which constitutes 10 percent of international trade and 4 percent of global GDP.Petroleum as a disposable resource plays a more and more important dominated role in the world energy pattern.The fluctuation of oil price threatens the economic growth and energy security in China and affects the normal operation of China’s economy and the world economy directly,which is not only an economic problem,but also a political and strategic issue.As the material basis of economic development,the petroleum under the operation of the capital market has become a kind of goods with commodity attributes,which makes oil prices fluctuate frequently and the influencing factors of oil price volatility are very complex.In this context,studying the influence factors of oil price deeply,and exploring how to improve the ability of oil price risk resistance to ensure the stability of oil price effectively so as to stable the energy supply security has become an urgent task for the sustainable development in China.The purpose of this paper is to establish a set of comprehensive risk evaluation index system of oil price by analyzing the influencing factors of oil price in China to research the present situation of China’s oil price risk.First of all,define the oil price risk standardizedly according to the theory of risk,discusses the risk characteristics of oil price,expounds the scope of the influence of main factors on oil price,and analyzes the applicability of the risk assessment methods.Secondly,this paper analyzes the present situation of China’s oil price risk from the domestic and international situation of oil price,and studies the problems of China’s oil price from the oil resource situation in China.Again,based on the current situation analysis and construction principle,choose 25 indexes from 6 aspects to establish a more comprehensive risk evaluation system of China’s oil price.Based on the data of 1990-2015,calculate the value of the index weight by the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy method to calculate the value of China’s oil price risk in each year and determine risk level.This paper selects the monthly data of Daqing oil price in 2000-2017 to analyze the trend of oil price in China,and makes a forecast.The results show that in terms of oil price volatility,oil price in China is mainly affected by six aspects: nature,polity,economy,market,technology and transportation.Although China has a huge demand for oil imports,its right in the system of international oil pricing mechanism is very weak,and the higher reliance on imported oil make the fluctuation of oil price in China is obviously influenced by the international oil market.In terms of the trend of oil price risk,the risk of China’s oil price has gradually changed from a lower level to a higher level,and there is a slow upward trend.In the first ten years,the market factor is the dominant factor in China’s oil price risk,in the last ten years,political factors play an important role in the risk factors,and in the past five years,the risk of oil price caused by technology and transportation factors has increased significantly.Overall,under the double attack between the complicated domestic and international oil market environment,China’s oil prices are expected to remain in a depressed state in the next four years,accompanied by a slight fluctuations. |
