Research On The Fluctuation Of China's Agricultural Exports To India

The economic and trade exchanges between China and India have become increasingly close in recent years.The scale of bilateral trade has continued to expand,and agricultural trade has also shown rapid growth.However,the development is not balanced,and China's agricultural trade deficit with India has expanded year after year.Most of the existing studies have only studied the development prospects and trends of China-India agricultural trade,as well as the trade competitiveness and complementarity between the two,and have rarely explored the growth factors of China-India agricultural trade.Based on this,the paper uses the constant market share model(CMS)to decompose the factors affecting China's export of agricultural products to India and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.This article first summarizes the relevant theoretical basis and empirical research.Then,based on a statistical description of China's current status of Indian agricultural products export trade,2007-2016 data is used.Based on the CMS model,the product breakdown by stages will affect Chinese agricultural exports to India.The eight types of fluctuations,combined with the characteristics of products,explore the causes and directions for improvement.Finally,this paper proposes related countermeasures and suggestions from the whole.The decomposition results of the overall agricultural product export data show that from 2006 to 2011,the increase in China's agricultural exports to India was dominated by the growth effect of structural effects,which is the result of the expansion of import demand for agricultural products from India,while the competitiveness of Chinese products is weaker.From 2012 to 2015,the decline in China's exports of agricultural products to India was mainly due to the declining demand for imports of agricultural products from India resulting in a declining growth effect,as well as the decline in the competitiveness of China's agricultural products as a whole;The rebound in China's exports to India has mainly benefited from the rebound in import demand for agricultural products from India and the partial optimization of export commodity structure.However,quality and competitiveness are still the main factors hindering exports,and the export structure still needs to be optimized.Therefore,overall,the change in the import demand for agricultural products in India is the main cause of fluctuations in the export trade of agricultural products in China.However,the lack of competitiveness of China's agricultural products exports,and the low degree of matching of export commodity structure and import demand are also important factors.The further breakdown of the sub-product category reveals that overall,China's exports of seven major agricultural products to India have been affected by India's import demand for agricultural products and the overall import size of the Indian market,that is,structural effects and growth effects have the most significant effect.The second is the competitiveness effect.The export of tobacco and beverage products and horticultural products is also affected by the commodity structure effect.Exports of other types of agricultural products are mainly affected by structural effects and growth effects.Based on the above conclusions,the paper finally proposes the following countermeasures: adjust the structure of export trade,promote stable growth of exports;improve the competitiveness of agricultural products,foster industrial competitive advantages;combine the latest development trends,improve the new export industry chain;improve the foreign trade information network system,improve The efficiency of foreign trade;the establishment of an agricultural trade information platform to communicate and resolve trade frictions;negotiate agricultural trade policies and lower trade barriers.