Analysis Of The Factors Affecting The Fluctuation Of China's Agricultural Products Exports To Japan

In March 2018,the State Council carried out institutional reforms,renamed the Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China as the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China,and also integrated agricultural projects of the National Development and Reform Commission,the Ministry of Finance,and the Ministry of Land and Resources to better serve the rural areas.Since the deficit of China's agricultural products exports in 2004,the deficit has increased year by year.Therefore,it is of significance to study the import and export of agricultural products in China.Japan has always been the first trading partner of China's agricultural products exports.During the sample period(2002-2016),China's exports of agricultural products to Japan accounted for the largest proportion of China's agricultural exports to all countries around the world,but the ratio of China's agricultural products exports to Japan's agricultural market has been declining.Therefore,we study the factors that influence the fluctuation of China's export of agricultural products to Japan,so as to optimize the export structure of agricultural products and increase the competitiveness of agricultural products,in order to further open up Japan's agricultural products market and increase China's agricultural product exports,it has great significance to China's agricultural products.In order to analyze the factors that influence the fluctuation of China's agricultural exports to Japan more comprehensively,this paper analyzes the fluctuation of the agricultural product trade volume from the total amount of agricultural products,the seven major types of agricultural products,and the five major agricultural products,at the same time,the TII index,RCA index and market share index of agricultural products are analyzed.Dividing the entire time span of 2002-2016 into four stages,using the constant market share model(CMS)to study the influence factors of China's agricultural products export trade from total volume,classification,and five major agricultural products,and discuss the decomposition of CMS models.The structural effects and competitiveness effects on China's agricultural exports to Japan,the final analysis of the relevant conclusions.This study finds that in recent years,China's exports of agricultural products to Japan have shown a downward trend.However,in most years,exports have exceeded US$10 billion.In terms of trade structure,China has advantages in labor-intensive agricultural products,but Land-intensive agricultural products have disadvantages.On the empirical side,a comprehensive analysis shows that China's exports to Japan's agricultural products are increasingly affected by Japan's demand for world agricultural products.China's exports of agricultural products to Japan have a Competitive advantages,but the advantages are not obvious.Finally,through the summary of related conclusions,five related policy recommendations were proposed,namely actively promoting China-Japan-South Korea FTA construction,actively exploring new markets,focusing on food safety and improving the quality of agricultural products,creating information exchange platforms and optimize the export structure,increasing agricultural investment and provide financial services.