Study On The Hog Price's Fluctuant Characteristics,Causes And Countermeasures Of Jiangxi

Currently,China's hog industry is still in the transfer period from the diversified-based to the large-scale farming.And a phenomenon that scattering pig raising households join and exit the market with the fluctuation of hog price is also more common,so hog price is swinging wildly.Since 2007,the hog market has been caught in constant irregular fluctuations of hog price,so it restrict the pig industry's development.And the problem that how to eliminate the negative impact of pig cycle and keep the pig industry healthy,steady and sustainable development needs to be solved.The research object is the data of hog price and other factors to explore the fluctuation characteristics of hog price and its influencing factors.Firstly,researched on the fluctuation characteristics of hog price,such as seasonal factors,random components,trend and cycle by Census X12 and Hodrick-Prescott Filter.The results showed that the hog price fluctuation is comparatively large,seasonal characteristics are obvious,annually,the seasonal factor of hog price peaks at a level in January and September,and then it gradually reduced.The random components influences the hog price,it is framed by outbreaks,macroeconomic environment and national policies,so the supply and demand is changed,and hog price violent fluctuating.The hog price follows an obvious cycle of ups and downs,there are five cycles of hog price fluctuation from 2007 to 2017,the longest cycle is 78 months and the shortest is 27 months,and a new cycle has not finished.Then,analyzed the factors of supply and demand,and studied the influence of each factor such as piglet price,pork price,corn price,substitution price and so on,then makes a multiple regression model,results show that the corn price and processing and circulation cost have significant impact on hog price.Finally,this paper give some recommendations to alleviate the hog cycles and stabilize the hog market such as giving full play to the corrective action of the market mechanism and promoting industrial upgrading of the pig industry used Internet technology and reshaping the supply chain by using “Internet + supply chain” and intensifying technology and funds support.