Research On Demand Risk Prevention Of Agile Supply Chain Based On Postponement Strategy

With the gradual enrichment of material life,consumers' demand for products is not only satisfied with a unified standard product,but is more in pursuit of personalized customization.These factors make the demand risk situation more and more frequent.Agile supply chain is favored for its high efficiency and agility,but due to the higher complexity and unpredictability of the agile supply chain,the demand risk is greatly increased.Agile supply chain demand risk prevention becomes an increasingly important issue.This article takes the knowledge of supply chain risk management,delay strategies and other related knowledge as the theoretical basis.Combining with the research status at home and abroad,based on the agile supply chain,the agile supply chain needs risk identification.Relying on the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,with the aid of theoretical analysis and mathematical model analysis,two agile supply chain risk prevention models based on delay strategy are established: precise response model of delay strategy,delay strategy,and information sharing value model.And through the case analysis of the effectiveness of the two models.The paper firstly uses agile supply chain as the object to identify the agile supply chain demand risk.Analyzes the formation mechanism,characteristics and sources of its demand risk.And thus select two high-frequency and severely affected risk sources: demand uncertainty and information asymmetry are the main follow-up research objects.Whether the delay strategy can effectively prevent the demand risk has been analyzed theoretically.The conclusions are as follows: The delay strategy reduces the agile supply chain complexity by reducing the complexity of agile supply chain changes,terminal complexity,system complexity,and process complexity.At the same time,the delay strategy can also cope with supply chain uncertainty by increasing the flexibility of the supply chain and using a mixture of information sharing strategies.The complexity of agile supply chain and the uncertainty of demand are the mechanism of the formation of demand risk.For both of these delay strategies can be dealt with,it is feasible to prove that the agile supply chain demand risk prevention based on the delay strategy is theoretically analyzed.The use of delay strategy can effectively reduce the supply chain demand risk,but it will often increase the cost.Therefore,the optimization of the delay strategy becomes very important,and the precise response is one of the main features of the agile supply chain.This paper builds mathematics.The model produces a precise response model based on a delay strategy.Through this model,the optimal conditions for the use of delay strategies are obtained,and the optimal production quantity.And through comparison and analysis of case data,it was found that this model not only enables companies to produce more customized products to meet customer needs and thus reduce demand risks under the same capacity,but also makes the enterprise even under the premise of increasing the cost of delayed strategies.Increased profits.The agile supply chain generally adopts the information sharing strategy to deal with the problem of information asymmetry.This strategy can also solve part of information asymmetry.However,both the delay strategy and the information sharing strategy need to invest a great deal of money.It is still unclear whether the benefits of superimposing the two are greater than the input cost.This paper separately establishes three value models that do not use delay strategies and only apply delay strategies,delay strategies,and information sharing mechanisms.And judge the value of the three models,determine how to use the delay strategy and information sharing model to maximize value.The study found that the benefits of using the two strategies were significantly greater than using only one of them.Although the cost has increased,the benefits it brings are far greater than the cost increase.This case selection analysis also proves the above conclusions,and when using the hybrid strategy,the supply chain can choose not to choose the early pricing model,but can respond to pricing by analyzing market demand.This is also a good prevention of demand risks.