Decomposition And Trend Forecasting Of Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions In Shandong Province

With the rapid development of economy and society,the energy consumption structure based on coal leads to the increase of energy consumption in China,especially the increase of fossil energy consumption,which leads to the continuous increase of carbon emissions in China and the enhancement of the greenhouse effect.Carbon emission reduction has become a common consensus of all countries in the world.In recent years,Shandong province has achieved rapid development by relying on its own resource advantages,but behind it are a series of resource and environmental problems such as the destruction of ecological environment caused by large amount of energy consumption.At the same time,Shandong province has something in common with the whole country due to its mode,industrial structure and stage of economic development.Therefore,this paper takes Shandong province as an example to study the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Shandong province and predict the future change trend of carbon emissions.It is not only of positive significance for Shandong province,but also of great significance for promoting carbon emission reduction in China and even other regions and providing promotion and reference for them.This paper takes Shandong province as the research object.Firstly,descriptive statistical analysis is conducted on the relevant factors of carbon emission in Shandong province.Secondly,by combing relevant literature,the LMDI model method was used to analyze the factors influencing carbon emission in Shandong province.Thirdly,the grey Verhulst predict model in the Grey System Theory is used to predict the future carbon emission evolution trend of Shandong province.Finally,the emission reduction policy is proposed according to the actual situation of Shandong province to control the energy consumption within a reasonable range and reduce the carbon emission of Shandong province,so as to provide reference for the realization of beautiful Shandong and green development.The paper draws the following main conclusions:(1)Shandong province faces a grim situation in carbon emission reduction.The economic growth of Shandong province is mainly driven by high-energy-consuming industries(secondary industry),and the industrial structure needs to be optimized.The structure of energy consumption heavy in coal and oil is not reasonable enough.Total energy consumption is large and the growth rate is too high.(2)The LMDI model was used to decompose the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Shandong province from 2005 to 2017.According to the decomposition results,economic output effect,energy consumption structure effect and industrial structure effect played a positive role inpromoting the overall contribution of carbon emissions in Shandong province,while energy intensity effect played a negative role in hindering the overall contribution of carbon emissions in Shandong province.Among the influencing factors that play a promoting role in carbon emission in Shandong province,the degree of influence is from large to small,including economic output,energy consumption structure and industrial structure.The main inhibiting factor is energy intensity.Economic output is the most important factor affecting carbon emission in Shandong province.(3)The IPCC carbon emission calculation method was used to calculate the carbon emissions of Shandong province from 2011 to 2017.It was found that the carbon emissions of Shandong province in 2017 reached 888.57 million tons.On this basis,the future carbon emissions of Shandong province were predicted by the gray Verhulst model,the results show that by 2022,will reach 926.46 million tons of carbon emissions in Shandong province.According to the conclusion,the main factors of carbon emission in Shandong province are:economic growth,industrial structure,energy utilization rate,energy consumption structure and living consumption,etc.Therefore,this paper gives corresponding measures and suggestions from these aspects to help Shandong province save energy and reduce emissions.