Demographic Transition And Structural Growth Of China's Economy

Since it’s reform and opening up,China’s economy been achieved rapidly development,the living standards of people have been continuously improved,and the international status has been greatly enhanced.However,the contradictions accumulated during the rapid development of the economy have also gradually emerged.For example,the extensive economic development model in the past has caused greater negative impacts on resources,the environment,and ecology;the process of urbanization and industrialization has not changed.Coordination;unfair income distribution and excessive gap between the rich and the poor.In this context,if China wants to circumvent the "middle income trapping" in order to successfully enter the ranks of high-income countries from the middle-income stage,it must find new impetus and new sources to maintain the sustained and steady growth of the Chinese economy.Some research scholars have noticed that changes in the economic structure will have a certain impact on economic growth.In other words,structural changes resulting from shifting economic resources or production factors from low-productivity sectors or industries to high-productivity sectors or industries.Can make a great contribution to economic growth.The structural growth of the economy will be a new way of thinking and a new outlet for China’s future economic development.However,by any means and means,economic resources and production factors can be shifted from those with low production efficiency to those with high productivity,and the structural growth of the economy can also be challenged.This article mainly studies the economic structural growth brought about by the transfer of production factors in different industries or different sectors from the perspective of demographic transition.The indicator chosen for the demographic transition in this article is the strength of population preference,and the indicator selected for economic structural growth is the relative growth rate of the sectoral economy.Through these two indicators,China’s current demographic transition and the structural growth of the economy are carried out.Measure,and on this basis,study the relationship between demographic transition and economic structural growth.Firstly,using the extended Solow model to measure the contribution of demographic transition to the output value of the tertiary industry,it was found that the influence of population preference quality on the output value of the tertiary industry was significant,and the population preference quality intensity was in agreement with the output value of the tertiary industry.The elasticity is 0.275.Next,we established the VAR model of demographic transition,technological progress,and relative growth rate of the sectoral economy to study the correlation between demographic transition and economic structural growth,and applied impulse response functions,variance decomposition,etc.based on the VAR model.The impact of the shift in population preference preferences on the technological progress and the relative growth rate of the sectoral economy was studied.Through the analysis of the impulse response function,it is found that when the intensity of the population’s quality preferences is affected,it will have a certain impact on technological progress.After a certain impact on the intensity of population quality preferences,it will have a certain impact on the relative growth rate of the sectoral economy,and it will show fluctuations in the form of fluctuations.When the lag period reaches six periods,the impact of population quality preferences on the economic growth rate of the sector reaches a maximum,and will continue to show fluctuations in the following period,and will reach a steady state around the ninth period.Similarly,after a certain impact on the relative growth rate of the sectoral economy,a certain degree of influence on the intensity of the population’s quality preferences presents a situation of unstable fluctuations.Revolves around y=0.The results of variance decomposition show that the time-varying continuance of the standard deviation of demographic transition was gradually weakened.The standard deviation carried by technological progress and sector growth gradually increased with the passage of time,especially the part carried by technological progress.The first six months showed a trend of fluctuations,but from the seventh period has been showing an increasing trend.The standard deviation of the relative growth rate of the sectoral economy is gradually weakened over time by the portion of the relative growth rate of the sector that is carried by itself over time.The standard deviation carried by the population quality quality preference and technological progress gradually increases with time,the top 5 The standard deviation of the relative growth rate of the sectoral economy in the mid-term was fluctuating around 10%by itself,far lower than the portion carried by demographic transition and technological progress,and the standard deviation of the relative growth rate of the sectoral economy was less than that of itself.The part carried by the demographic transition.Finally,by using the cointegration theory,an error correction model was established between demographic transition and economic structural growth.It was found that there is a long-term and stable cointegration relationship between population preference quality intensity and relative growth rate of sectoral economy,that is,demographic transition and economy.There is a long-term and stable relationship between structural growth and changes in the same direction.