The Impact Of Changes In The Age Structure Of The Population On The Current Account

After World War ?,with the rising income level of residents,the improvement of medical treatment level and the gradual improvement of social security system,developed and developing countries experienced a baby boom.After the baby boom,affected by welfare,education,cost of maintenance and other factors,the fertility desire of residents in developed countries is rapidly declining,and the trend of population aging is beginning to appear.After the baby boom era residents enter the retirement age,the population aging in various countries is becoming more and more serious.Associated with this trend is the positive correlation between demographic dividends and current account surpluses in many countries.Especially after the disintegration of the bipolar structure,the process of global economic integration has gradually accelerated,various tariff and non-tariff barriers among countries have been further reduced,and the scale of world trade in goods and services has been expanding.However,due to the aging of the population,developed countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom continue to run current account deficits,while emerging economies such as South Korea and China continue to maintain current account surpluses.The latter is closely related to the "time gap" of the demographic dividend.Since the new century,the problem of Global trade imbalance has attracted the attention of theoretical researchers and policy makers,and the relationship between population dividend and current account has become more and more.Since the new century,the problem of global trade imbalance has attracted much attention from theoretical researchers and policy makers,and more and more studies have been focused on the relationship between the demographic dividend and current account.As for the causes of Global trade imbalance,some scholars have analyzed it from the perspectives of exchange rate,industrial structure and government fiscal deficit,and the relevant conclusions can explain the relevant phenomena.However,the analysis from these perspectives neglects the heterogeneity of consumer behavior at different ages.The practice of various countries shows that this is a variable that cannot be ignored.The theoretical model and empirical facts show that in the long run.the change of the age structure of a country's population will affect the national savings rate,which will then be transmitted to the current account,resulting in a strong correlation between the change of the population structure and the current account.In order to further study the impact of population age structure change on current account,this paper establishes an improved three-period OLG model,and selects panel data of 18 countries in the G20 except EU and China from 1994 to 2017.The samples are divided into developed and developing countries.The author uses system-GMM method to carry out empirical analysis to test the reliability of empirical facts and model conclusions.The empirical results show that the current account has a strong inertia,the change of population age structure has a significant impact on the current account in the long run,and the impact of the elderly dependency ratio is more obvious than that of the children dependency ratio.Since the baby boom in the 1950s,China's population has maintained a relatively high birth rate until the end of the 1970s.However,the family planning policy since the 1980s has made China's demographic dividend very significant in the short term.But 30 years later,China is facing a more serious aging problem,and the labor participation rate has begun to decline,which not only brings more adverse effects on economic growth,but also has a great negative impact on the current account.In view of this,the author puts forward some policy suggestions according to the current situation of current account and aging in China and empirical conclusions.