The Relation Analysis Of Population Age Structure And Current Account Balance In China

The changes in the age structure of the population are profoundly affecting the economic development of all countries in the world.Some of them are opportunities and some are challenges.In the case of China,the opportunities are fading and the challenge will be inevitable.Huge current account surplus and gradual deepening of the aging process are the basic status in our country.However,this article attempts to explore the relationship between the age structure of the population and the current account balance,in which the population age structure is mainly aimed at the young dependents Ratio and elderly dependency ratio of two indicators to study.This article will be divided into six chapters.The first chapter mainly introduces the research background and significance of the paper,the theoretical research results at home and abroad,and structure framework as well as the innovation points and shortcomings of this article.The second chapter mainly introduces the related concepts and theoretical foundation that will be involved in the thesis,which focuses on double gap model,life cycle theory model and Diamond’s overlapping model.The third chapter will explain some of China’s population age structure and current account status and main features,and based on historical evolution analysis.In Chapter 4,we will construct a three-period generation overlapping model,introduce current account items in the model and try to explore the relationship between population age structure and current account in a theoretical way.The fifth chapter will use the panel data from 1997 to 2016 in China to conduct dynamic panel estimation,and further divide the regions of China into two parts: the dynamic panel moment estimation in eastern,central and western regions of China,and the further introduction of the real exchange rate,the open trade Degrees,industrial added value,government fiscal expenditure,economic development stage and economic growthrate and other control variables.Finally,the empirical results of the analysis and testing.Chapter Six summarizes the previous theoretical results and empirical results,and makes relevant policy recommendations based on the main conclusions obtained.The policy recommendations mainly focus on the adjustment of population structure and the change and upgrading of China’s industrial structure.Based on the relevant theoretical and empirical findings,the main conclusion of this paper is that there is a significant positive correlation between the child rearing ratio and the current account balance,the old dependency ratio and the current account balance are significantly negatively correlated,and such an association Sexuality in China,the eastern region,the central region and the western region have shown.Based on the above conclusions,we can say that the population age structure can effectively explain the current account balance in China.