A Study Of Urban Settlement On The Willingness Of Migrant Workers To Have A Second Child

With the rapid development of China's urbanization,the level of urbanization is constantly improving.As of February 2016,the total number of floating population in China is 277 million,and the total proportion of migrant workers is more than60%.At present,migrant workers are mainly the group born after 80 or 90.They are not only the population of childbearing age,but also the main undertaker of social productivity.Although China has implemented the comprehensive two child policy since 2016,the implementation effect of the policy is not ideal,and China's fertility level is still relatively low,even lower than the replacement level for a long time.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the fertility intention of migrant workers for the improvement of population structure in the future and for the implementation of the two child policy.Migrant workers from rural areas into the city,not only with the traditional concept of rural fertility,but also gradually affected by the concept of the city.As an important decision of migrant workers' families,the birth decision should be a reasonable allocation of all resources of migrant workers' families.As one of the important family decisions of migrant workers,housing is bound to redistribute the resources of their families,and housing is the primary factor for migrant workers to settle down in cities and gradually urbanize.In recent years,the rapid growth of housing prices has exceeded the economic capacity of migrant workers in the city.Whether migrant workers can settle in the city has become an unknown problem.Although the state has issued a series of policies to protect the housing of migrant workers,whether these policies can promote migrant workers to settle down in cities,affect the distribution of family resources of migrant workers,and further affect the fertility decision-making of migrant workers,this will be an urgent issue to be discussed in this paper.This paper uses data from the “National Dynamic Monitoring Survey on Health and Family Planning of Floating Population” organized and implemented by the National Health Commission.The database is currently the most comprehensive micro-database of individual migrant workers in China.Based on the data of floating population in 2016,probit model will be established to explore the influencing factors of migrant workers' fertility intention and the influence of urban settlement intention on second child fertility intention from the aspects of personal characteristics,social security,mobility characteristics and family characteristics.Because of the endogeneity of urban settlement intention and fertility intention,this paper will use ivprobit model to solve the endogeneity problem.The study showed that the city's willingness to settle has a positive impact on the migrant workers' fertility desire.From a personal point of view,women are more reluctant to have a second child than men;as their age increases,their second child's willingness to givebirth decreases;the greater the elasticity of work and the higher the stability,the higher the second child's willingness to give birth to migrant workers.From the perspective of social security,with the improvement of social security and social medical insurance,migrant workers' willingness to give birth has increased.Judging from the characteristics of mobility,the longer the mobility,the stronger the sense of social integration in the city,and the fertility willingness will be significantly increased;the higher the housing price in the land,the less willing the migrant workers to settle.From the perspective of family characteristics,the characteristics of one child including the age,sex,and childcare of one child will affect the migrant child's willingness to give birth.When the age of one child is old and the care situation is good,the willingness to give birth will increase.Finally,combined with the current housing policy and the flow characteristics of migrant workers,group and interactive item tests are used to further test whether the housing security system can compensate for the negative impact of high housing prices on the fertility willingness of childbearing age population.The research shows that the housing security system,especially the rent security,further strengthens the migrant workers' willingness to give birth,and the superiority of housing security is more prominent in family migration.Based on this,this article puts forward policy suggestions such as improving the urban housing security system for migrant workers,improving the social security system for the migrant workers,and improving the social service system for child care and childcare.