Evaluation And Improvement Of Financial Warning Model For Listed Company

From 1990 to 1991,the establishment of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange opened China's stock market's door.As the continued development of the Chinese economy,as well as various government encouragements,the number of listed companies in china keeps increasing.However,the risk the stock market faces is also increasing rapidly.Researchers usually only focus on the share price itself during the study in the stock market.They build models based on the historical data,without the introduction of the company's financial situation.Although the stock changed hands frequently in the secondary market and many factors affect the price fluctuations,a sharp fall in a single stock share must be closely related to its bad operating performance.We analyze the listing corporations' financial statements combined with the prediction of the possibility that the company's share price declines sharply next year,which is significant to evade the risk for investors and strengthening the supervision.This paper firstly combs the research achievements in the field of financial early warning and points out some shortcomings of existing studies.Secondly,it studies how to screen modeling indicators objectively and proposes that correlation analysis and principal component analysis methods can be used to eliminate the interference of subjective factors and achieve the goal of data reduction.Thirdly,in the light of the limitation that existing models only discuss the corporate bankruptcy problems,this paper uses cluster analysis methods to find out the target corporation,so broadens the research scope and field of application.Finally,the paper makes a contrastive analysis in final research results,non statistical methods and the data mining technology in the field of financial early warning research.This paper aims to establish a simple and scientific financial early warning model for investors and supervision departments,which is different from the traditional financial early warning model about enterprises' bankruptcy risk,but for recognizing the possible business risks which may make the company stock fall sharply,and provide basis both for investors to avoid risk and regulators implementing a highly individualized approach to supervision and management.