Evaluation And Predication Of Urbanization Development From The Perspective Of "Population-Land-Finance" Coupling

Currently,Chinese urbanization is in a key stage of rapid development.It is a result of various factors mobilization and assemblage,including population as the core factor,land as carrier factor and finance as the guarantee factor.However,contemporary Chinese urbanization disorderliness focus on the land factors and severely overlook the population factor which should be the start point,fundamental element and terminal point.This urbanization leads to some phenomena and characteristics,such as the population urbanization lags behind the land urbanization,unbalanced regional development,limited resources and various social conflicts etc.Essentially,above problems are caused by "population-land-finance" three key factors coupling and coordinating.Since the traditional urbanization is unsustainable and new-type urbanization is irreversible,Chines new-type urbanization need to be evaluated and forecast,a "population-land-finance" constrain and coordinate institution should be founded,and three crucial factors ought to reasonable deployed and efficiently run.Those have vital academic significance and practical value.Based on nationwide provincial panel data during 2009 to 2014,this dissertation tries to construct an evaluation framework on new-type urbanization.The evaluation framework takes population,land and finance factors into consideration,assesses the quality of national and provincial urbanization,and analyze the causal factors and space-time layout of the new-type urbanization.By using the coupling-coordinating function model,this dissertation aims to empirically testify the coupling-coordinating level at national and provincial level,clarify the developmental stage,space-time deployment characters and coupling-coordinating future trend.Taken the new-type urbanization's content,goal and future trend into consideration,the dissertation purposes institutional path and policy suggestions on new-type urbanization centralization and coordination development.There are some research findings below:Firstly,Chinese population,land and finance urbanization has gained great achievement and improvement,showed some staged characters,and entered a key transformation stage from "land-centered urbanization" to "population-centered urbanization" around 2012,in which period the finance urbanization was declined and accordingly the land urbanization was stagnated,population urbanization was accelerated;secondly,the space-time deployment of regional and provincial urbanization development is unbalanced,to be more specific,there is an obvious developmental gap in the land urbanization and it negatively affect the finance urbanization,besides there is a "beyond curve " phenomena in the central area;thirdly,the deployment of population and land urbanization is banding and circular structure,coincidence with the city cluster in the National Planning of New-type Urbanization Development;fourthly,national urbanization coupling-coordinating level has experienced a decline and then stably raise during 2009 to 2015,at same time the coupling-coordinating condition in the west area may be worse;fifthly,in the future(till 2030),Chinese urbanization may face serious shortage in land and finance area,such as 58.70 trillion money and 750 thousand acres land;sixth,the year 2014 to 2018 will be a crucial opportunity period for updating and transformation,after that population factor will dominate the urbanization and financial factor will play an important transitional role in the updating and transformation period;seventh,the financial factor should be regarded as the reform breakthrough point,the land factor should be contained and the population factor should be improved,in order to compel the development of "population-land-finance" institutional reform and policy coordination.