An Empirical Study Of Nanchang Residential Real Estate Bubble

Real estate industry is a pillar industry of Nanchang. Once the residential realestate bubble occurred in Nanchang,it would bring severe consequences totheeconomic and social life of Nanchang city. Thus, research on the existence of realestate bubble and how to measure bubbles in Nanchang has great significance to thesustainable development of Nanchang City estate market.This thesis firstly explaines the theory of the real estate bubble, including thenotion, characteristics, causes，harm and the measurement methods of real estatebubble;then，measures the size of the real estate bubble in Nanchang by Index systemmethod.F inally，some suggestions were given bosed on the physical truth.The empirical part is the central content of this thesis. This thesis choose thoseindexs to estimate the bubble status，the indexes studied inelude Real estateinvestment versus fixed investment,house price increase versus GDP growth rate,priceto income ratio,commodity housing vacancy rate and Real estate loan growth rateversus financial institution loan growth rate. Using factor analysis method to certainweight of those indexs.Through empirical research， the following conclusions can be drawn:from2002to2011,there is bubble in Nanchang bubble real estate market except2002,2008,2009,2010,2011.And the degree of bubble is most serious in2003.