The Impact Of The The Belt And Road Initiative On China’s Foreign Trade

New changes have taken place in the current global situation.Countries are undergoing complex and profound changes.The deep impact of the international financial crisis has become increasingly prominent.Against this background,the report of the 20 th National Congress emphasizes the high-quality construction of the "the Belt and Road".Although the world economy has shown signs of gradual recovery,development problems still plague countries around the world.On the one hand,the "the Belt and Road" initiative,as a major strategic decision made by China on a global scale,has provided new ideas for international cooperation and played a huge role in promoting the increase of trade flows.On the other hand,the level of trade facilitation in the process of international trade is the key driving force to promote trade.China’s initiative to jointly build the "the Belt and Road" has achieved remarkable results in promoting trade development.However,whether this plan can further improve the level of trade facilitation of trade partners still lacks the necessary theoretical support and empirical evidence.Therefore,this paper examines whether the "the Belt and Road" initiative will bring positive trade effects to all countries,and also examines and analyzes the internal mechanism of the "the Belt and Road" initiative to promote China’s foreign trade.This paper starts from the background and literature,summarizes and provides theoretical support for the following research.In order to assess the impact of the signing of the "the Belt and Road" cooperation document on China’s foreign trade,this paper regards the signing of the "the Belt and Road" cooperation document by all countries as a quasi natural experiment.Based on the data of 180 relevant countries from 2006 to 2020 and the trade gravity model,this paper uses the double difference method to comprehensively evaluate the trade promotion effect after the signing of the "the Belt and Road" cooperation document.In view of the different time when different countries signed the agreement,this paper takes the time when countries signed the "the Belt and Road" cooperation document as the policy time to evaluate the impact and mechanism of China’s foreign trade.The empirical results show that the "the Belt and Road" initiative plays an important role in promoting China’s foreign trade level,and has been proved through a series of effectiveness and robustness tests,but the impact is lagging behind,and gradually becomes effective 1-2 years after countries sign cooperation documents.Secondly,when conducting a mechanism test on the impact of the signing of the "the Belt and Road" cooperation document on China’s foreign trade,this paper refers to relevant literature,according to the Global Competitiveness Report issued by the World Economic Forum,and uses the principal component analysis method to build a trade facilitation indicator system from four dimensions of infrastructure,customs environment,institutional environment,and information technology and financial environment,And calculate the trade facilitation level of relevant countries according to relevant data.It is found from the measurement results that the trade facilitation index of developed countries is generally at a higher level than that of developing countries.After signing the cooperation documents,the the Belt and Road member countries have significantly improved their trade facilitation.Through regression analysis,it can be concluded that the signing of the "the Belt and Road" cooperation document has a promoting effect on trade facilitation,and the improvement of trade facilitation can promote China’s foreign trade level.Through further regression analysis of the four first level indicators of trade facilitation,this paper finds that information technology and financial environment have the greatest impact on trade facilitation.The robustness of regression results was verified by two methods: variable replacement and variable lag.After countries signed the "the Belt and Road" cooperation document,they often reduce tariff levels and technical barriers to trade between countries through agreements to optimize the trade environment between the two countries,facilitate trade between the two countries,and further usher in new development opportunities.Therefore,in order to simulate and evaluate the economic effects of the the Belt and Road Initiative to achieve full trade liberalization,this paper studies the impact of the the Belt and Road Initiative on participating countries through the global trade analysis model.This paper uses the classification method from the perspective of geographical location to divide141 countries in the GTAPAgg software into 12 regions.Because the large economic volume of the United States and Japan has a significant impact on the "the Belt and Road" countries,this paper uses the previous processing methods to retain the United States and Japan after matching in the GTAP database,and uses the classification standards of the ISIC industry for reference in commodity classification.The research results show that the the Belt and Road Initiative has a positive impact on all member countries.For non the Belt and Road countries such as the United States and Japan,the the Belt and Road Initiative has not promoted their economies.On the contrary,it has caused economic decline in all countries.Finally,according to the relevant research results,policy recommendations are put forward: first,countries can improve the level of trade facilitation by strengthening infrastructure construction,standardizing rules and regulations,building a standardized customs environment,and improving the level of information technology and financial services;Secondly,we should actively promote the initiative of jointly building the "the Belt and Road" and further accelerate the construction of the free trade zone network.Build a free trade zone network with China as the core,further improve the level of cooperation in the free trade zone,expand cooperation with the free trade zone in the "the Belt and Road" region,strengthen the demonstration effect,and gradually extend to other surrounding areas,ultimately realizing the construction of a free trade zone network radiating the whole "the Belt and Road" region.