Study On Index Improvement And Prediction Of Grain Self-sufficiency Rate

For a long time,China as a country with a large population and limited land resources,how to feed the world's largest population with limited cultivated land has been widely concerned at home and abroad.Brown,an American scholar,put forward the proposition of "who will feed China" in the 1990 s,and in 2014 put forward the new question "can the world feed China".Whether China's grain supply and demand can be self-sufficient has been questioned by the outside world.Grain self-sufficiency rate,as an important indicator that can not only transmit the situation of grain production,but also express the information of grain demand,is an indispensable index to measure food security.Its change has been subject to the change of grain production for a long time.To the government and the academic community to attach great importance to.However,under the background of China's grain production increasing from 2004 to 2015 and still reaching 657.89 million tons in 2018,the grain self-sufficiency rate is decreasing gradually.Therefore,the study of grain self-sufficiency rate,especially in the new era,is an important subject of discussion value.Based on the data of grain supply and demand in China from 1998 to 2017,this paper is based on the concept of food security in the new era,the theory of balance of supply and demand,the theory of comparative advantage,the theory of sustainable development,and statistics.Based on the theory of economics and mathematics and their methods,this paper reviews the historical stages of grain supply and demand in China,analyzes the changing trend of grain self-sufficiency rate in China and its cognition of measuring grain security,Considering the complicated situation that the grain self-sufficiency rate is affected by the external factors such as open economy and function expansion,the calculation index of grain self-sufficiency rate is improved.Improved from meeting rations consumption,major food consumption,respectively Cost and all food consumption at three levels.Multiple regression was used to predict the future grain supply in China,GM(1,1)grey system was used to predict the improved grain demand,combined with the two prediction values,the grain self-sufficiency rate of our country was predicted.The main work of this paper is as follows: firstly,based on the concept of food security in the new era,the perspective of open economy and function expansion deeply understands that the reduction of the level of traditional grain self-sufficiency has not significantly affected the situation of food security;Secondly,the measurement index of grain self-sufficiency rate is improved from three levels: ration consumption,main food consumption and all food consumption,and the improved grain self-sufficiency rate is used to calculate the grain self-sufficiency rate.The results showed that the multi-level grain self-sufficiency rate was at a higher level.After that,we forecast the possible changes of grain self-sufficiency rate in the next few years,and make a leading judgment on grain self-sufficiency rate and grain security level.The results show that the grain self-sufficiency rate of the highest level will still be above the safety standard.Finally,according to the prediction results of the improved grain self-sufficiency rate,the countermeasures and suggestions for the grain security strategy of our country are put forward.According to the research results of this paper,we hope to provide some reference value for the study of grain self-sufficiency rate and food security in our country.