Research On The Trade Facilitation And Trade Potential Between China And ASEAN Countries In The Context Of One Belt One Road

Trade facilitation,as an important topic in the field of international trade,has a great influence on global trade.Now many international organizations have discussed and negotiated on this topic several times in an effort to further improve the level of global trade facilitation and remove obstacles to the development of international trade.In recent years,The scope of cooperation between China and ASEAN countries has been continuously expanded,with the proposal of China's “One Belt and One Road” strategy.And China and ASEAN countries have conducted consultations on the issue of trade facilitation in an effort to build a simple,transparent,and efficient trading environment.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to quantitatively analyze the influence of trade facilitation to trade potential between China and ASEAN countries.Firstly the paper reviewed the domestic and foreign literature related to the impact of trade facilitation on trade potential,and then systematically introduced the theory of trade facilitation.Based on this,we constructed a trade facilitation assessment index system and use principal component analysis to measure the level of trade facilitation between China and ASEAN countries by Eviews7.2 software.The results showed that there are large differences in the level of trade facilitation among ASEAN countries,but the degree of trade facilitation in most countries is gradually increasing.Among them,Singapore has the highest level of trade facilitation and Malaysia ranks second,followed by Brunei.China,Indonesia,Thailand,the Philippines,Vietnam,and Cambodia are the lowest.Secondly,we make use of the trade data between China and ASEAN countries from2010 to 2016 and analyze the impact of trade facilitation on China's trade flows to ASEAN countries through gravitational models.With reference to Wilson Mann and Otsuki's(2003)research method,the trade facilitation between China and ASEAN countries upgrades to a higher level,that is,the level of trade facilitation in Singapore being improved from score of 0.87 to a score of 0.9;the level of trade facilitation of Malaysia being promoted from the more convenience to the most convenience;the level of trade facilitation in Brunei being promoted from the general convenience to the more convenient;and the trade facilitation levels in Indonesia,Thailand,the Philippines,Vietnam and Cambodia are less convenience,promoting from the less inconvenience to general convenience,to estimate the influence of trade facilitation on trade potential between China and ASEAN countries.The results of the study indicates trade facilitation has played a greater role in promoting inter-state trade flows than the import and export countries' gross domestic product,population,geographical distance,and reduction of tariffs.The improvement of trade facilitation can expand trade potential.The trade facilitation among ASEAN countries has been upgraded to a higher level,which can improve 16.54% of trade potential.Finally,we put forward some revelant suggestions according to the conclusions of this paper and think that China and ASEAN should actively participate in negotiations and forums on trade facilitation and learn from the experience of trade facilitation reforms in other countries and improve the level of trade facilitation by international cooperation.