Study On Product And Pricing Of Chinese Reverse Mortgage

The aging degree of China's population is increasingly serious,the number of disabled elderly people gradually increased.Compared with the developed countries that have entered an aging society,the national economic base is relatively weak when China enters an aging society.The situation of "getting old before being rich" highlights the problems of the elderly support and long-term care in China.With the urbanization process accelerated,the emergence of the 421 family model,the family tends to be miniaturized and empty-nested,which leads to the weakening of the family support and long-term care functions,and the elderly people face serious the elderly support and long-term care crisis,the elderly support and long-term care demand.With the rapid development of the real estate market,home ownership rate has been increasing,the elderly become a typical "house rich,cash poor",the elderly independent support and home support will gradually increase,the willingness to preferentially rely on the children's support gradually reduced.Exploring housing reverse mortgage products from perspective of long-term care and the elderly support functions has become the innovation direction,satisfies the function of the elderly support and long-term care,can alleviate the urgent demand of the elderly to "support" and "nurse",lighten the social support pressure and improve the quality of life of the elderly in their later years.The key to product implementation lies in whether the product pricing is reasonable.This paper uses the theory and knowledge of financial insurance,actuarial science,reverse mortgage and long-term care insurance,and combines the development status quo of housing reverse mortgage insurance and long-term care insurance in China,and focuses on research and exploration of housing reverse mortgage products from perspective of long-term care and the elderly support functions and pricing issues have contributed to the product's innovation and scientific development,focusing on the pricing of the product.This paper first introduces the research background and significance of this paper through the three parts of the severity of aging,the insufficiency of the elderly support and long-term care,and the exploration of the new type of endowment mode.This paper defines the concepts of reverse mortgage loan,housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance,long-term care and long-term care insurance,and then introduces the development status quo of housing reverse mortgage insurance and long-term care insurance in China.After that,expounds the relevant theoretical basis of the products systematically.On the basis of this,we study and explore the housing reverse mortgage products from perspective of long-term care and the elderly support functions.This paper expounds the concept,future cash flow,characteristics and operation flow of the product,compares it with the housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance and the long-term care insurance,and analyzes and explores the advantages of the product and the feasibility of the product promotion.Secondly,this paper systematically expounds the related theories of product pricing,including asset pricing theory,option pricing theory and actuarial pricing theory,then analyzes the main factors affecting product pricing,and then uses actuarial pricing theory and actuarial pricing method to study product pricing.This paper chooses the model of mortality and house price which affect the pricing,calculates the relative mortality and survival rate according to actuarial theory,uses the geometric Brownian motion stochastic model to predict the future house value,and assumes that the insured enters the long-term care state until death,and the long-term care security is lifelong,That is,when the insured lives in a long-term care state,the insurance company will pay the long-term care payment to its death,on the basis of this,it deduces the pricing formula of the single life state and the last surviving state of the double life,which contains five kinds of influencing factors.Finally,the paper collects the monthly data of second-hand housing price index in large and medium-sized cities in recent years,estimates the parameters of the housing price index model,calculates the housing price index in the future by using Monte Carlo simulation,and calculates the related mortality and survival data according to the related equations and the data in the third set of life tables.Using the data of the sixth national census,the probability that people of different ages cannot take care of themselves is calculated,and using Gompertz Model to fit the predicted probability of living unabled for elderly people aged 100-105 years old in city,and then according to the set interest rate and the additional cost rate,the pension amount of the insured can be obtained under the condition of single life state and the final surviving state of the double life.After that,the sensitivity analysis is made on the change of interest rate,the growth rate and fluctuation rate of house price,and the change of the house present value,and the pension amount under each situation is obtained.The results show that the product can significantly improve the elder's income in their later years,not only to meet the old people's basic living expenses and long-term care needs,but also to some extent improve the life of the elderly,so that the elderly life is more secure.Based on the above analysis,whether in the state of single life or the final surviving of double life,when other conditions are the same,the pension received by the insured increases with the increase of the age of insurance,and the increase rate is increasing.In terms of sensitivity: the higher the interest rate,the less the pension is received by the insured,the higher the average rate of housing price,the higher the pension of the insured,and the lower the influence of the change of the interest rate and the fluctuation of the average rate of the house price as the insured age increases;the fluctuation of the average rate of the house price has a greater impact on the amount of pensions received by the insured;the last living condition is more sensitive to the fluctuation of the average rate of the house price.The main contributions of this paper are as follows: first,it puts forward a new perspective of combining elderly support with long-term care,explores the combination of long-term care security function and housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance products,explores and researches new products to meet the needs of the elderly support and long-term care combination.Second,the pricing study is analyzed by considering the single life state and the last surviving state of the double life.In the pricing,the mortality is calculated using the pension table in the latest third set of life tables for 2016 as the underlying data,the mortality rate of the table is lower than that of the second set of life tables,which is more in line with the current population mortality rate in our country,and the use of this table compared with the second set of life tables can reduce the risk of longevity that insurance companies may face.Third,when simulating and predicting the fluctuation of house value in the future,using the monthly data of the second-hand housing price index of large and medium-sized cities throughout our country from 2006 to 2017 as the basic data,we estimate the parameters of the housing price index model,which is closer to the actual situation.