Research On Risk Transmission And Countermeasures Of Real Estate Finance In China

China’s housing price experienced a rapid rise in 2015-2016.The fifth national financial work conference held in 2017 pointed out that "preventing the occurrence of systemic financial risks is the fundamental task of financial work and the eternal theme of financial work.With all kinds of measures of restricting purchase and lending in big cities,the current situation of housing price is stable but still in hidden danger.The challenge facing the current economic environment is the trade war launched by the United States in 2018,the fed continues to raise interest rates and the monetary side continues to tighten,China’s monetary easing has a tightening trend,and the negative impact of trade war on exports will be transmitted to the real estate.As a result of tightened financing,the first-and second-tier price limit,the third-and fourth-tier shanty reform and monetization resettlement,and the rise of individual mortgage interest rates,housing enterprises are cautious about land acquisition,and in the second half of the year,especially in the third-and fourth-tier housing market sales pressure.As credit conditions continue to tighten,real estate developers are under greater financing pressure.General secretary Xi jinping has repeatedly stressed that "" financial security is an important part of national security,and accurate judgment of risks and hidden dangers is the prerequisite for ensuring financial security."" The study of real estate financial risk is particularly important in the current environment.The research object of this paper is the relatively mature real estate financial system.The occurrence and function of risks are in the overall system composed of the real estate market and the financial market.This paper introduces the complex network theoretical tool,which has applicability.For the system characteristics,the overall system is established in this paper,based on the idea of super network structure model of network demonstrates the overall system of property rights,capital structure characteristics of network and information network for risk contributed,and through the study of correlation between network,found two important natural dynamic-the long boom of the rebound effect accumulation and demand a speculative bubble.Modeling of the system in this paper,the overall train of thought for,based on system actor defined and based on system dynamic contribution to the structure of the network layer and its super edge and vertex is extracted,ultimately determine theoverall system of five types of network,the network structure of the property right circulation,capital circulation network and market information circulation network,social,natural circulation network and competition-cooperation information circulation network three information network,using the hypergraph and complex network model of five types of network modeling tools.The analysis of a single network shows that the property rights circulation network has a bad tail risk,and the capital circulation network has an exaggerated credit risk,while the adverse selection of transaction and moral risk aggravate the above two risks.In the market information network,there are "canoe bridge" and "island of silence" in different ways to amplify the expected misalignment in the vertex structure;Both the social natural information circulation network and the competition-cooperation network show the characteristics of small world and scale-free.Through the study on the decision-making mechanism of nodes,it is found that the former is more prone to herd effect,while the latter is more prone to domino effect.Is revealed from the study of the three relationships between the network layer,the price is different from real relationship between supply and demand forecast of supply and demand relations,and hysteresis of the gap is natural and expected misalignment of the amplifier and speculative bubble,and thus found the nature of the two systems dynamic: the long boom of the speculative bubbles and demand rebound effect.The research on the conduction mechanism is mainly based on the theory of successive failures of complex networks and minsky dynamics.The analysis shows that with the increasing dependence on capital liquidity,the node or system has a lower capacity,and the lower capacity means the enhancement of vulnerability,and the enhancement of local vulnerability creates the vulnerability of the system.The mechanism of the origin of risk is that the accumulation effect of the long-term prosperity of speculative bubble leads to the fragility of the system.The mechanism of risk occurrence lies in the confrontation between the event and the system vulnerability,and the weak event when the vulnerability is very low will also cause the risk,and the demand rebound effect is a common risk triggering event.The risk transfer mechanism lies in that after receiving the sudden negative change of capacity,on the one hand,the strategic behavior of the node will aggravate the impact of the whole system;on the other hand,after the node breaks the flow security threshold,the load will spread to other nodes along the capital channel.The mechanism of risk redemption lies in the encounter of two security thresholds of property rights(minsky moment)anddislocation(system collapse).Based on the above research conclusions,this paper discusses the development thoughts,methods and implementation thoughts of risk inhibition countermeasures,and proposes that the importance of quantitative combination in current treatment,information channel and warning target is risk visualization,simulation prediction is more important than real-time monitoring,and the effective solution of long-term problems depends on long-term mechanism.The innovation of this paper lies in the introduction of complex network theoretical tools to the real estate financial risk,the establishment of risk interpretation methods from the perspective of complex network,and the opening of a corner of the systematic interpretation of the real estate financial risk mechanism.The disadvantage is that the advantages and potential of the complex network in quantitative modeling are not reflected in this paper,and relevant research has great potential: if the combined modeling of risk conditions can be carried out,the research on risk prediction and assessment direction will be a big step forward.