The Research Of Factors Of Financial Stress Based On MIMIC Model

In May 2014,China's economic development entered the new normal of medium and high-speed development.In October 2015,China proposed the supply-side reform,which promoted the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure with "three cuts and one supplement",putting great pressure on various sectors of the economy.The significant deleveraging pressure of the financial sector has a significant impact on the stability of the economy and the leverage level and financial pressure of the government,enterprises and residents,among which the financial pressure has the most significant impact on the real economy.Different sectors have different levels of leverage and the sensitivity of deleveraging,and the transmission mechanism of deleveraging process between different sectors is still unclear.With the deepening of supply-side reform,the financial sector and the enterprise sector have great deleveraging risks.In addition,under the new situation of sino-us trade war in 2018,it is of theoretical and practical urgency to deeply analyze the formation mechanism and spillover effect of China's financial pressure.The financial pressure index(FSI)is a continuous variable.Extreme FSI index indicates huge fluctuations in the financial system.The index can systematically measure the operation of the financial system.In this paper,the structure of the pressure on the financial index at home and abroad for reference,the method and application of research results,comprehensive consideration of domestic financial intermediation and financial system development present situation,in the domestic and foreign development trend of typicality indicators,using multiple factors index model to our country the influence factors of the financial pressure measurement analysis show that the actual interest rate,the total import and export rate of change,the real effective exchange rate overvalued,unemployment,the CPI index change rate,M2 ratio of foreign exchange reserves and estimate index model,such as poor quality,The influence coefficients of the ratio of domestic credit to GDP,export growth rate,foreign exchange reserve growth rate and real effective exchange rate overvaluation on financial pressure are respectively 0.412,-0.763,-0.709 and 0.525.The time series data of China's financial pressure is calculated by these four indexes,which is in line with the development trend of domestic and foreign economy.Affected by the spillover effect of American subprime mortgage crisis,FSI index was in a high range in the time domain from 2007-12 to 2008-10.In 2009,the index gradually peaked and fell back.However,with the deepening reform of the financial system and mechanism and the acceleration of interest rate liberalization,since June 2013,the FSI index has been on the upward trend,which reflects the problem of tight liquidity in the banking system.Since 2015,the economic boost has been weak,the industrial structure is unreasonable and there is a large excess capacity,which calls for more in-depth promotion of "supply-side reform".In 2016,financial pressure was relatively gentle,and in 2017,the general trend of deepening supply-side reform and deleveraging led to a rise in financial pressure.Financial stress structural equation analysis showed that the strength of the banking sector in the financial pressure effect is 0.765,the foreign exchange market and stock market affects the intensity of 0.614,0.613,and the three departments at the same time the correlation is stronger,the banking sector and the stock market,foreign exchange market,the correlation coefficient of 0.89,0.91,the correlation coefficient is 0.76,the stock market and foreign exchange market in the banking sector in the mechanisms of financial pressure has played an important role,this also confirmed that this article assumes that the existence of higher order potential variables,financial pressure,theoretical and practical.The banking sector,the external market and the stock market are highly correlated with each other and have strong linkage relations.Therefore,it is necessary to guard against financial risks and control the level of financial pressure without short board effect.There was a residual correlation between the real interest rate and the stock index change rate,and the correlation coefficient was 0.25,0.23 in turn.Export growth and foreign exchange reserves growth there is residual,coefficient is 0.31 the real interest rate an important impact on economic main body of investment and financing behavior,such as enterprise investment costs and benefits will be affected by the real interest rate,so enterprise's stock price fluctuations and real interest rates are related export growth rate has increased,can boost the growth of foreign exchange reserves,export growth rates and foreign exchange reserve growth can complement each other,help ease the financial pressure of formation and diffusion.