Telecommunication And The Impact On Economic Growth In China

Since the 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up in China,the development of the telecommunication has already captured the worldwide attention.The number of telephone users,4G users,4G base stations,mobile broadband users have all become the top of the world by 2018.With the gradual improvement of broadband infrastructure construction,the numbers of Internet users have experienced a sudden explosive growth.China has the largest fiber broadband users,with Internet penetration rate reaching 56%.The history of the telecommunication in China moves in zigzags.In the beginning,the telecommunication used to be the bottleneck industry that dragged the economic development with the backward infrastructure,poor technology and expensive charges.Now the telecommunication has become a basic industry and a forerunner industry of China,and gets ready to grow into a pillar industry.There are direct and indirect contribution of the telecommunication on economic growth.By affecting other industries,the indirect impact may make more contribution on economic growth.Therefore,how to measure the impact of the telecommunication on economic growth is worth studying.This paper estimated the direct contribution of the telecommunication on economic growth from 1992 to 2016,and it turned out that the direct contribution rate first rose then fell.In an effort to answer this question,this paper estimated the all contributions in the same period.Above all,the Grange causality tests were used to check the mutual relationship between the development of telecommunication and economic growth,and the result indicated positive.And by using the gray relation analysis,it was proved that the development of telecommunication related to economic growth.Then this paper built a regress model based on the Feder model with latest data to analyze the all contribution.The conclusion was that each unit increase in the telecommunication causing 6.7 units increase in economic growth.The all contribution rate was 5.8%from 1992 to 2016.And then the grey model GM(1,1)was used to predict the development of telecommunication.The forecast results showed that the business volume continued to increase,but there has been a slowdown in the growth rate.At last,according to the results and challenge in the future,this paper gave some advice of policy:consecutively promoting the telecommunications universal service and penetration rates for Internet and broadband,promoting the transformation of operators to the intelligent platform,accelerating the integration of 5G and the IoT.In the end,the paper summarized the research conclusions and existing problems to be solved.