Research On The Spatial-temporal Pattern And Its Influencing Factors Of The Evolution Of Agricultural Industrial Structure In Shandong Province

Since the reform and opening up,the agricultural industrial structure of Shandong Province has undergone significant changes in the context of rapid regional economic development,accelerating industrialization and urbanization,and significantly increasing the income level of residents.The single structure type mainly based on planting industry has been completely broken,the agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery have been comprehensively developed,the agricultural industrial structure has been increasingly coordinated,and the industrial structure of the agricultural sector has been continuously optimized.In the new era,with the improvement of people's consumption level,the change of supply and demand relationship in agricultural products market and the increasing pressure of regional competition,the development of agricultural production in Shandong Province faces new difficulties and challenges.Under the current economic development situation,how to further optimize and adjust the agricultural industrial structure and accelerate the reform of the supply side of agricultural products is one of the key issues facing the development of agricultural economy in Shandong Province.Based on this,this paper explores the spatial-temporal pattern and its influencing factors of the evolution of agricultural industrial structure in Shandong Province since 1978.It is helpful to understand and grasp the law of regional agricultural structure evolution,and it has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the development of agricultural economy in Shandong Province and even the whole country in the new era.The main contents of this study include:(1)Research on the spatial-temporal pattern of agricultural industrial structure evolution in Shandong Province from 1978 to 2017.Firstly,on the basis of comparative analysis with the evolution of agricultural industrial structure in the country,the general characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution in Shandong Province are summarized,and the characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution are analyzed by means of agricultural industrial structure evolution index and Moore structural change index.At the same time,it measures and summarizes the industrial composition and changing trends of the internal structure of the crop industry and animal husbandry.Secondly,by measuring the industrial structure evolution similarity coefficient,the difference degree index,Moran's I index and other indicators,the similarity,difference and correlation characteristics of agricultural industrial structure evolution in different regions are analyzed.And by measuring the industrial structure bias index,the characteristics of the “off grain” of the planting structure in 17 cities are analyzed.(2)According to the agricultural development process of Shandong Province from 1978 to 2017,analyze the impacts of agricultural resource conditions,economic and social development level,market demand and policy system on the agricultural industrial structure,and establish an econometric model to conduct empirical tests.(3)Proposing countermeasures for agricultural transformation and upgrading and industrial structure adjustment.Main conclusions:(1)From 1978 to 2017,the agricultural industrial structure of Shandong Province tends to be diversified,and the stage characteristics of evolution are significant.The overall characteristics are first fast and then slow,and the structural evolution is gradually flattened.From the perspective of time changes,it is mainly divided into four stages:(1)the slow change phase from 1978 to 1984.(2)1985-1993 rapid change phase.(3)The period of steady change from 1994 to 2004.(4)2005-2017 slow change and adjustment optimization stage.From the perspective of spatial changes,the similarity of agricultural industrial structure between different regions has been weakened,the difference has been enhanced,and the spatial correlation has become more and more significant.(2)From 1978 to 2017,the industrial structure evolution of the agricultural sector in Shandong Province was active and there were certain regional differences.From the perspective of time changes,the evolution of crop industry structure in the sector has a significant “grain-free” tendency,and the evolution of the animal husbandry structure has a significant “non-pig” tendency.The proportion of grain planting area and output value in the crop industry decreased,the proportion of planting area and output value of cash crops increased;the proportion of pig breeding products in animal husbandry decreased,and the proportion of products such as cattle,sheep and poultry increased..From the perspective of spatial changes,the differences in the evolution of agricultural industrial structure in the eastern coastal areas are more prominent.The tendency of “off-the-grain” tendencies in Yantai,Qingdao,Jining,Weifang,Linyi,Tai'an and Laiwu is more significant,while Dezhou and Heze show obvious "increasing food" tendencies,The characteristics of “off-the-grain” in other cities are not significant.(3)The non-agricultural GDP ratio,fiscal expenditure on agriculture,total agricultural machinery,and household food consumption levels have a significant impact on the evolution of agricultural industrial structure in Shandong Province.At the end of the year,the area of cultivated land,agricultural labor,irrigation rate of cultivated land and meat consumption of households have a significant effect on the evolution of agricultural industrial structure.The impact of fiscal expenditure on agriculture,total agricultural machinery and per capita food consumption on the evolution of agricultural structure in Shandong Province is “lag”.(4)Shandong Province should enhance the promotion of urbanization and industrialization,increase investment in agricultural technology,improve the agricultural service system,give full play to regional comparative advantages and government regulation,and promote the optimization andupgrading of regional agricultural industrial structure.