The Impact Of Renminbi Exchange Rate Changes On The Survival Of Export Enterprises

Since the exchange reform in 2005,the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been already appreciating.Meanwhile,although China's export volume increased in the same period,the growth rate has been slowing down,and the impact of exchange rate changes on exports has been constantly apparent.Differ from most macro-perspective studies,this article chooses micro-enterprise data,considering the heterogeneity of enterprises simultaneously,to study the impact of exchange rate changes on the export survival of micro-enterprises.Firstly,based on the literature review at home and abroad,the paper analyses the impact of exchange rate changes on enterprises' export survival from the perspective of theoretical model.The theoretical model is in view of Monopoly Competition Model(Krugman;1979),exchange rate variables are introduced into the model.The paper analyses the export survival of heterogeneous enterprises under the premise of exchange rate fluctuation from preferences and technology?equilibrium price and yield.From the model,the article find that exchange rate is negatively correlated with the price of export products and positively correlated with the quantity of export products.Enterprises with higher productivity have higher price elasticity and lower output elasticity under the background of appreciation of their own currencies,which will makes higher productivity enterprises easier to maintain export when exchange rate changes in an unfavorable direction.Secondly,based on the matching data of China Industrial Enterprise Database and China Customs Export Database from 2005 to 2013,this paper constructs a binary Probit unbalanced panel model of RMB real effective exchange rate(REER)and other variables affecting the survival of enterprises to test the previous hypothesis.From the regression result,we find that:Firstly,exchange rate,as one of the core variables of this article,has a significant impact on the export survival of enterprises.Secondly,other macroeconomic factors have a significant impact on the export survival of enterprises,but the specific impact is still different.Lastly,the differences of enterprise characteristic variables lead to differences in the performance of enterprises in export survival,as the core factor of this paper,productivity factors has a positive effects.Export survival has a significant positive effect.In order to ensure the credibility of the results,this paper also tests the robustness by replacing substitution variables and changing estimation methods,which proves that the empirical results are consistent.Thirdly,in order to further analyze the impact of productivity differences and ownership differences on export survival of enterprises,grouping tests were conducted respectively.From the test,we find that:On the one hand,exchange rate has a significant negative impact on export survival,but the absolute value of this impact varies with productivity,and firms with high productivity are less affected by exchange rate changes.On the other hand,ownership differences also have an impact,but state-owned enterprises with obvious national backgrounds are less affected.Finally,based on the analysis results,this paper puts forward several policy recommendations from both macro and micro perspectives.