Research On Risk Evaluation Of Engineering Project Of Shaanxi Telecom

With the increasingly competition in the mobile communications market,traditional operational method of mobile communication engineering project failed to meet the rapidly changing market demands.Communication engineering projects involving with a large amount of investment,high technology-intensive,wide range as well as long periodicity,the risks and uncertainties to be faced are getting more and more,thus the risk of the project becomes increasingly complicated and the loss becomeshuger and huger.It is of great significance for communication engineering project to improve the level of risk management,reduce the loss,minimize the cost and achieve the technical and economic benefits.Therefore,this paper is devoted to studying the problem of the following respects:(1)this paper will analyze the connotations and characteristics of communication engineering project risk management and identify the conventional risk factors which communication engineering projects are facing;(2)we will compareforeign communication engineering project risk assessment theory and method with ours,in order to provide scientific basis for China's communication engineering project managers to choose risk assessment method;(3)we will evaluate the risk factors of communication engineering project and put forward appropriate risk control measures based on the results.Starting from the practice of communication project,this paper has carried on the research on the following aspects:(1)Construction communication engineering project risk evaluation index system.After reading a lot of relevant literatures,taking the characteristics of communication project into account and analyzing the risk factors which Xi'an Splitting Project of Shaanxi Telecom CDMA Network is facing,we construct the risk evaluation index system which includes 4 first-class indexes:technical risk,management risk,economic risk and other risks.Technical risk includes technical skills,overall technology selection and design of demand change,new equipment reliability;Management risk includes organization and personnel risk,contract management risk,equipment supply risk and management level risk;Economic risk includes economic policy risk,interest rate risk and customer ability to pay;Other risk includes customer cooperate risk,site and the network environment,policy and legal risk.(2)Construction enterprise risk evaluation model.This paper compares various risk evaluation method like analytical hierarchy process,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,principal component analysis:factor analysis and TOPSIS.This paper will introduce the basic principle and modeling steps of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in detail.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on hierarchical analysis is used to evaluate risk for Xi'an Splitting Project.(3)Empirical research-Xi'an Splitting Project of Shaanxi Telecom CDMA Network.The empirical study finds that the project risk is in a very high level,which technical risk and management risk are main risk that project faced.Results show that among the second-class indexes,overall technology selection,management level,design of demand change and site and network environment is the most important risks,thus the project should pay more attention to monitor these risk factors and take measures to deal with the risks.