Research On The Impact Of China's Social Basic Endowment Insurance On Residents' Savings

In recent decades,China has achieved rapid economic growth.From 2013 to 2018,China's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 7.1%3 higher than the world growth rate of 2.6%in the same period and the average growth rate of4%in developing economies.At the same time,"high savings,low consumption and population aging" has become a serious problem in our country.According to the data released by the International Monetary Fund,China's national savings rate has been at the forefront of the world since the 1970s.The savings rate increased from 20%in 1997 to 33.5%in 2018,which is much higher than the international average.In addition,China belongs to a typical"not rich before old" country.In 2018,there were 16.65 million elderly people over 65 years old,accounting for 11.9%of the total population,which is much higher than the aging level of 7%.On the one hand,the increasingly serious aging of the population has made the importance of basic old-age insurance more and more important.On the other hand,the basic endowment insurance system is an important measure to solve the problem of high saving.In this paper,we mainly study the impact of China's basic endowment insurance on household savings based on the introduction of demographic changes.At present,the endowment insurance system is mainly divided into basic endowment insurance,enterprise supplementary endowment insurance,individual savings endowment insurance and commercial insurance in China.Among them,the basic endowment insurance is a system combining social pooling and individual account.The object of this study is the basic old-age insurance compulsorily implemented by the government.Although the endowment insurance system is gradually established in China,the existing problems are still sharp,such as insufficient fairness,weak sustainability and low level of coordination.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the relationship among basic endowment insurance,population structure and household savings for improving people's livelihood and maintaining healthy economic development.In the measurement of empirical evidence,this paper adopted three ways,the national time series data,inter-provincial panel data,inter-regional panel data for empirical analysis of the results.First,the nationwide selection of 2005-2014 data makes readers clear the relationship between pension insurance,population structure and household savings,the results show that savings on the elderly dependency ratio and the dependency ratio of young children have a positive and negative elasticity respectively;Secondly,adopting the inter-provincial panel data from 2005 to 2014 to analyze the effect of the basic pension insurance system and the population structure on saving more systematically and clearly,the result shows the substitution effect of pension wealth and crowding-out effect of payment.When analyzing the habitual factors of saving,we find that the first-order lagged variable introduced has a significant positive correlation with the current per capita saving,indicating the significant effect of habituality on the current period.Finally,empirical analysis is carried out by dividing the regional panel data into three parts:the east,the middle and the west.Although the performance of each region is the same,the distinctions are significant.The eastern region is not significantly affected by any expenditure on basic old-age insurance in cities and towns.However,Significantly,on the contrary in the western region,only the performance of expenditures is significant.The author analyzes the reasons for the differences in economic development among regions,making the motivation for saving caused by the basic pension insurance showing a difference.Based on the results of this study,we propose five policy recommendations:First,to establish a reasonable level of basic pension insurance contributions and pension replacement rate.The second is to strengthen the education,propaganda and reform of the social pension insurance system.Third is the good transport pension fund and the establishment of a strict management and supervision system.Fourth,it should focus on solving the problem of "empty accounts" in personal accounts implemented in China.Fifth,it is appropriate to extend the retirement age of workers,reduce the overall ageing of residents,and promote the healthy development of society.