Research On Credit Bond Default Risk Based On KMV Model

In recent years,the company's issuance of bonds for financing has received increasing public attention.Since 2007,the issuance of corporate bonds has continued to grow,and the subsequent credit risks have gradually emerged.In March 2014,the material breach of contract of "11 Super Day Debt" kicked off the default of corporate bonds in China.According to the wind database,as of December 31,2018,there were a total of 247 defaults on corporate credit bonds in China,ranging from non-listed companies to listed companies,causing market concerns.For the immature corporate bond market in China,it is extremely urgent to understand and learn to manage credit risk effectively.This will not only help promote.the healthy operation of the corporate bond market,but also contribute to the stability of China's financial market and the national economy.This paper starts with the related concepts and the credit risk theory of bonds,integrates the research results of domestic and foreign scholars,introduces the credit risk measurement model,and finally selects the KMV model to measure the credit risk of China's listed company bonds default;secondly,it will pass the default bond and does not happen.The companies with default bonds are divided into high-risk and low-risk groups.The empirical analysis shows that there are significant differences in the default distance between the two groups,and the probability of default in the high-risk group is significantly higher than that in the low-risk group.So the model is effective and reliable.Then combined with the case analysis,the model is used to calculate the default distance of the companies in the A-share real estate industry in China in 2017,and their default risk status is analyzed.After starting with three listed real estate companies and analyzing their correlation with the empirical results,through the review of the default events and the summary of the reasons,they found that they have an important factor in the substantive default of the bond:eager to carry out transformation and innovation and lead to unstable financial situation.The equity pledge rate is too high,resulting in excessive credit risk;the impact of macroeconomic policies;the impact of unexpected situations,etc.,to propose preventive measures for other listed companies in the real estate industry:pay attention to the company's basic operating conditions,profit indicators and compensation At the same time of debt indicators,we must also pay attention to the company's strategic transformation in the financial statements;pay attention to the company's shareholder pledge,the pledge rate is too high to pay close attention to minimize credit risk;establish a sound risk Coping mechanisms to address the impact of the external environment and emergencies;governments and affiliates should also support and help in policy and other areas.