Research On The Impact Of China-Laos Economic And Trade Cooperation On Laos Economic Growth

Laos is Located in the northern part of the Indochina Peninsula,Laos and China are friendly neighbors.China and Laos have a long history of cultural exchanges and economic and trade cooperation.Since the late Han Dynasty and the Three Kingdoms era,China and Laos have had a record of trade relations.Since the establishment of the Lao People's Democratic Republic in the 20th century and the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and the Lao People's Democratic Republic in 1961,relations between China and Laos have been stable and sound for more than half a century.In 2009,the two countries established a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.Since the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2010 and the China Belt and Road Initiative in 2013,China-Laos economic and trade cooperation has grown rapidly in terms of both quantity and quality,and China-Laos economic and trade cooperation has entered a period of in-depth cooperation.Since 2000,it has become the second largest trading partner of Laos.With the deepening of China-Laos economic and trade cooperation,the Lao economy has also enjoyed the dividends of economic and trade cooperation and put its wings on the rise.This article mainly discusses the historical process of economic and trade cooperation between China and Laos,clarifies the current situation and existing problems of sino-laos economic and trade cooperation,and analyzes the influence of various aspects of Laos economic and trade cooperation on Laos's economic growth.The first chapter of this paper is an introduction,the second chapter is a literature review,and the third chapter focuses on the theoretical analysis of the impact of China-Laos economic and trade cooperation on the Lao economy.Then the paper analyzes the mechanism of economic and trade cooperation between China and Laos,mainly from four aspects:import trade,export trade,China's investment in Laos and China's economic assistance to Laos.Finally,the main problems existing in China-Laos economic and trade cooperation.The fourth chapter mainly studies the empirical analysis of the impact of China-Laos economic and trade cooperation on the growth of the Lao economy,selects these major aspects of economic and trade cooperation from 1992 to 2017,and builds a VECM dynamic model based on the vector error correction model proposed by Johansen.The model is analyzed by using the maximum likelihood estimation method(MLE).We find that import trade has a positive effect on the growth of the Lao economy,and will promote the use of higher prices in the short term;Export trade has a positive effect on the growth of the Lao economy,and the promotion role will continue to increase in the next three years.Chinese investment in Laos has a positive effect on the growth of the Lao economy,and the promotion role will be greatly enhanced in the next two years.The promotion role will be weakened in the third year.The Chinese economic assistance to the Lao economy will contribute positively to the growth of the Lao economy and will continue to increase in the next three years.Moreover,we have analyzed the problems,opportunities and challenges in China-Laos economic and trade cooperation in the future,and put forward targeted policies and suggestions for China's economic and trade cooperation in order to further promote the rapid and healthy development of the Lao economy.