Research On The Measurement And Countermeasures Of The Real Estate Bubble In Rizhao City

In 1998,China began to carry out housing reform.With the smooth progress of the reform,the real estate industry developed rapidly in the market-oriented operation,gradually becoming the pillar industry of the national economy and stimulating China's economic development.However,in recent years,as the real estate market has developed rapidly,some new problems have emerged.The speculative heat of investment in the real estate market has increased sharply,housing prices have continued to rise,creating a real estate bubble,and pressure on buyers has continued to increase.Whether or not there is a bubble in China's real estate market has gradually become a talk of people after a meal,and it has become the focus of debate among experts in the academic world.Therefore,measuring the real estate bubble situation in Rizhao City is of great significance to promote the healthy and stable operation of Rizhao City's real estate market.This paper conducts an in-depth measurement study on the real estate bubble in Rizhao City.Firstly,it introduces the research background and significance,expounds the research content,ideas and methods,and the innovations and deficiencies of this paper.Secondly,it expresses the concept,characteristics and basic theory of real estate bubble.The basic theory includes rational bubble theory and irrational bubble.Theory and supply and demand equilibrium theory,and systematically sort out relevant literature at home and abroad;once again,analyze the status quo of China's real estate market,the status quo and existing problems of Rizhao City real estate;then,from herding effect,adverse selection,land finance and credit funds This paper analyzes the causes and harms of the real estate bubble.Then,the index method and the stepwise regression model are used to measure the real estate bubble.The Granger test and cointegration test are used to verify the causal relationship and long-term equilibrium between the variables.Finally,summarize the full text to draw conclusions and propose corresponding countermeasures.The research conclusions show that Rizhao City had obvious characteristics of real estate bubble from 2004 to 2008.From 2005 to 2006,due to the slowdown of Rizhao City real estate loan growth,Rizhao City's real estate fever decreased slightly.In 2007,the real estate market became more enthusiastic and the degree of bubbles increased.In 2008,it was the most serious,reaching the maximum value of the bubble.In 2009,affected by policy regulation and the downward trend of the economy,the real estate bubble also showed a downward trend.Rizhao City's real estate bubble in 2013 has been the lowest in history,and the real estate market is in a relatively rational market-oriented operation.With the development of China's economy and thedevelopment of coastal cities,Rizhao City has started to pick up in 2014.In 2015 and 2016,the price of sunshine has soared,and there is a serious bubble phenomenon.In 2017,the real estate market is still hot,and there is still a serious bubble phenomenon.In response to the real estate bubble in Rizhao City,we proposed countermeasures such as strengthening land resource management,increasing money supply and joint Internet e-commerce.