The Study Of Measurement Of Real Estate Bubble And Empirical Analysis

Real estate industry is a pillar industry in China. It has led to the development of more than thirty related industries and it also has stimulated the growth of Chinese economy in both investment and consumption. The healthy development of the real estate industry is the prerequisite for the health of the development of the national economy. Therefore, the prevention of the occurrence of the real estate bubble is important.June 2009 real estate market had straighted up sharply , trading volume rose sharply, housing prices rose steadily, staged a battle of the heroes "land king constantly present," "volume and price rose," "hard to get a room" . The Chinese property market quickly transformed into excitement by the downturn, the recession into prosperity, the controversy about the existence of real estate bubble has intensified. This is the subject's background.This paper firstly studies the theory of the real estate bubble, including the definitions, characteristics, causes, hazards and the measurement methods of real estate bubble; next, empirical analysis was carried out based on the theories above, the size of t the real estate bubble in Chongqing was measured by the index method ; Finally, a realestate bubble of the preventive measures are advised. This paper focuses on the comparative analysis methods of measuring the real estate bubble , mainly represents on the index method, theoretical-price method, statistics-test method and their applicability. theoretical-price method and statistics-test method required a large amount of datas, however, the lack of relevant statistical data caused the limitation of the application of both methods in China. But the index method is simple and easy to understand, also it is easy to obtain the required data, and thus this method has been selected as the indicators of the size of the real estate bubble in Chongqing .The empirical part firstly analyse the Chongqing City real estate situation from aspects like the GDP, fixed asset investment, real estate investment, per capita disposable income, housing prices, sales of commercial aspects of the amount and area. Then it selects a real estate investment / fixed assets investment, income-house price ratio and house price-rental ratio as a measure index, in the meanwhile comparing with the measure of Beijing. In this way, the city real estate bubble of Chongqing can be represent in both the horizontal and vertical contrast, which reflects the case of Chongqing City real estate bubble more intuitively. By calculating and comparing, the Chongqing real estate investment / fixed assets investment, price earnings ratio and the rental sale ratio were within a reasonable range while the three indicators in Beijing were a far away from the calculated values of the standard range, which reflects there is no bubble in Chongqingthe real estate , and there is serious bubble in Beijing real estate.