Measurement, Early-Warning&Prevention On The Real Estate Bubble Of Nanning

In recent years, with rapid economic growth, the Government’s investment and other factors contributed to the real estate boom alive. Real estate overheating problems gradually become the government and the people, business and academic topic of common concern. Whether the real estate market exist bubble or not has become the focus of debate among researchers.In this paper, by comparing the real estate bubble Measurement of the status quo at home and abroad and overview of the real estate bubble theoretical, this paper concludes the definition of the real estate bubble. The situation of Nanning real estate market during the period of2000to2012is analyzed. Five indicators which are The ratio of real estate investment in the total social investment in fixed assets, The land price foam multiples, Housing vacancy rate coefficient bubble, The ratio of the real estate development investment growth rate and GDP growth, Housing-price-to-income Ratio are calculated by Ramsey model, Market modification method and some other methods. Nanning real estate bubble degree of calendar year is indicated by the value of K which is calculated by using the entropy method and the efficacy coefficient method.The results show that, since2000, the rapid development of the real estate market has occurred in Nanning, and foam has been in more than the normal level of the overall state of the reasonable range. According to the research results, this paper analyzes reasons of inflating the housing bubble in Nanning City, put forward relevant recommendations from several aspects about how to prevent and control of the real estate bubble of Nanning City, such as land policy, information disclosure policy, tax system, administrative means and so on. I hope this article can become the guide stone to someone who researches on the development status of Nanning City real estate market.