Research On Risk Assessment Of Chinese Institutional Investment In American Corporate Bonds

As the openness of China's capital market continues to expand,more and more Chinese investors are looking to foreign markets.Investors pursue global asset allocation to maximize relative returns and minimize relative risks.International investment is divided into international direct investment and international indirect investment.International indirect investment is an investment behavior of transnational investment in securities.Most scholars are studying international direct investment.The existing theory of international direct investment is very complete,but there are few studies on the risks of cross-border bond investment,and there is no systematic analysis of the risks faced by Chinese investment in overseas bonds.Research results.As far as China's actual situation is concerned,foreign bonds have been invested for a long time,and the main investment target is the US bond market.China's investment in foreign corporate bonds is mainly divided into two stages.The first stage was before 2008,the scale of corporate bond investment rose rapidly,and the largest scale reached 10.2 billion US dollars.However,because of the global financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,the international bond market has shrunk sharply,and the scale of corporate bond investment has fallen sharply.The second stage is from 2008 to the present,the scale of corporate bond investment has remained within a certain range.The subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 made the scale of corporate bond investment decline,and also reminded investors at home and abroad of the risk concerns.Investors are more cautious in making investment decisions.Therefore,at this stage,the system and in-depth analysis of the risks faced by investing in US corporate bonds are highly forward-looking and realistic.This paper studies Chinese institutions investing in foreign corporate bonds.Based on an in-depth analysis of the risk factors of Chinese institutions investing in foreign bonds,the company invests in US corporate bonds as an empirical research object,constructs a risk assessment system,and tests the risks of investing in foreign corporate bonds.This paper firstly combs the literature from two aspects: investment risk management theory and securities investment risk assessment theory,and summarizes the research status of Chinese institutions' foreign bond risk assessment.Then it sorts and summarizes the reality and risks of foreign investment in China.On the basis of theory and practice,the risk of investing in foreign corporate bonds is divided into macro risk,medium risk and micro risk.The specific aspects of each risk are analyzed in depth,and the risk assessment system of Chinese institutions investing foreign bonds is constructed..Based on the theoretical analysis,this paper uses the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP)and case analysis method to test the risk assessment of investment in US specific bonds.The triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process selects corporate bonds in three different industries,and invites 3-4 experts to score the risk index weights and specific bonds.On the basis of determining the weight,the linear comprehensive evaluation model is used to calculate the comprehensive value of the risk assessment of corporate bonds in different industries.The empirical results show that macro risk is an important reason for the risk of investing in US corporate bonds,with a weight of 69.0%.The difference in corporate bond risk in different industries is mainly reflected in industry factors and micro-enterprise and bond factors,rather than macro factors.The case analysis method selects CIC to invest in Morgan Stanley bonds,and the losses mainly come from economic risks,political risks,industry risks and investment yield risks.Although investing in US corporate bonds faces risks from macro,meso and micro,the real risk factors are only individual risk indicators at a certain level.