Identification,Trade-off And Optimization Strategies Of Potential Land Use Conflict In Agro-pastoral Ecotone-A Case Study In Yanchi,Ningxia

With the population growth and urbanization advance,land use intensity is increasing and land resources are facing increasingly shortage,causing the issue of land use conflicts,which have become the major obstacles to sustainable land use development.Recognizing areas where potential conflicts may occur and carrying out coordination and management,are issues to maintain ecological stability and sustainable development of agro-pastoral ecotone area that need to be addressed urgently.This study took Yanchi County of Ningxia Province as the research area,with the idea of"Identification-Mechanism-Evaluation-Strategy":(1)construct the evaluation system of potential land use conflict based on tendency analysis of construction,agricultural and ecological land,and identify the potential conflict area by conflict recognition matrix;(2)Calculate the economic,social and ecological profits of different land use types.By establishing the constraint condition,a reference point programming approach was used to optimize land use structures in the different scenarios.Calculate land use structures under conditions of the maximum economic benefits,maximum social benefits and maximum ecological benefits;(3)Based on the conflict evaluation results and the optimized land use structures,use the global simulation capability of CLUE-S model,the allocation of land use demands under three different development scenarios was weighed,and the binary logistic regression method was used to extract different land types rules,as a basis for the simulation of regional land use optimization layout for the target year under different scenarios.Main results and conclusions of this research are as follow:(1)From the results of tendency evaluation,the expansion of construction land in this area was slightly inadequate with economic development lagging behind;although the agricultural land was widely distributed,the quality of farmland was rather poor and agricultural advantage was not prominent;the ecological land occupied a large proportion,the ecological dominance was more prominent.(2)From the results of conflict evaluation,58.9%of the total area faced a risk of potential land use conflict,mostly of moderate conflict,probability of intense conflict was low in the short term;intense conflict area accounted for 6.82%of the total area,where land use tendency was overlapped highly and was much likely to turn into actual conflict.(3)From the results of land use allocation,the optimized layout underwent the biggest change under the scenario of ecological protection and natural development compared with the base year,the former was to be configured with a large area of grassland and woodland in the northern sandy area,the latter was to transfer many plowing plots to urban and mining land in the western and northwestern of the county,optimization results could be beneficial to land use conflict mitigation.(4)The main causes for the conflict were the lack of high-quality farmland,implementation of grazing prohibition policy and the fast process of urbanization.In order to avoid the conflict clashes,in potential conflict area between construction land and agricultural land,land use efficiency of suitable construction land should be improved,and the industrial agglomeration effect should be strengthened;protection priority should be given to high quality cultivated land,and efficient agriculture cultivation in dryland should be guided scientifically;in area where potential conflict between agricultural land and ecological land,guidance should be given to encourage the fallow,crop rotation tillage,maintaining soil fertility to ensure the sustainable development of agricultural land resources.