| Since the 21 th century,the process of trade integration in Central and Eastern European countries has been deepening,and foreign trade has played an important role in their economic growth.The European Union is the main trading partner of the Central and Eastern European countries.However,the debt crisis in the euro zone has led to the decline of purchasing power of the core EU countries,which has affected the import demand and investment of the Central and Eastern European countries.Faced with internal and external pressures,in order to maintain economic development,the Central and Eastern European countries adopted the policy of "opening up to the east",and actively carried out economic restructuring and reform.Central and Eastern European countries are the necessary passage from China to Eurasia by land.They are the links between Eurasian countries and China in trade.They have market potential and geographic advantages.In this paper,the relationship between trade and industrial structure between China and Central and Eastern European countries is analyzed theoretically and empirically,and the three indicators system of technological innovation ability,human capital level and energy utilization efficiency is constructed on the method of measuring industrial structure optimization.The final index of industrial structure optimization is obtained by using factor analysis to extract public factors and construct final index.In the measurement of foreign trade,factor analysis is also used to extract public factors from the indicators describing bilateral trade to maximize the description of trade situation.Through unit root test,cointegration test,VEC model and impulse response analysis of the indicators,starting from the internal mechanism that affects the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,through the analysis of the three indicators system and foreign trade,we can find the relationship between trade and industrial structure between China and Central and Eastern European countries.It is found that measuring trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries has a significant positive impact on technological innovation ability,human capital level and energy efficiency of industrial structure optimization.Therefore,bilateral trade can promote the development of industrial structure.That is to say,policy recommendations are put forward:vigorously promote enterprise innovation and development,improve energy efficiency,and deepen the reform of talent development. |
