The Research Of The Relation Between Shandong Province's Foreign Trade Commodity's Structure And Industrial Structure

With the deepening and the advancement of globalization, the interaction of the productive factors is becoming much more frequent. The physical and non-physical trade among different countries has achieved unprecedented growth. Meanwhile, the channels of the international trade are becoming much more diversified. The research on the international trade structures and the structures of the industry are always the focus areas during the study of the international trade and industrial economics. As the representative coastal province in the east of China, based on the geographical advantage and the development of the industry, Shandong has achieved trade growth and industrial structure optimization. The industrial structure of Shandong province has gradually changed from "Two-Three-One" to "Three-Two -One". With the openness of the local industry, the interaction of the foreign trade and industry is becoming much more closed.This essay elaborates the relative research achievements and theories in three aspects: trade & economic growth?industrial structure & economic growth and trade&industrial structure. Next the research focuses on the mechanisms of the mutual influence of the trade structure and industry structure. Based on the historical data,this paper gives a thorough description of the development of the international trade and the structural change of industry in Shandong province. On the basis of the rational classification of the trade structure and industrial structure, this paper carries on the correlation analysis of the trade commodity structure and the industrial structure. Based on the data index construction,this paper analyses the interaction between the trade structure and industrial structure through co-integration analysis,Granger causality and VAR model. The results demonstrate that the mutual promotion exists between the industrial structure and the export commodity structure. The change of the import commodity structure generates a positive impulse on the industrial structure. On the other hand, the change of the industrial structure generates a negative impulse on the import commodity structure.On the basis of the previous research and analysis, this paper analyzes the main reasons that affect the industrial structure and trade structure of Shandong Province from two perspectives: internal demand and external demand. In terms of external demand, the foreign trade data is divided into two parts: before &after the 2008 global financial crisis. The analysis concentrates on the changes in the quantity and proportion of export commodities in Shandong Province. Then the gray relational analysis method is applied to analyze the changes of the correlation degree between the foreign trade structure and the industrial structure in Shandong Province before and after the economic crisis. Through the comparative analysis, the correlation between the labor-intensive export commodity structure and the industrial structure change in Shandong Province has been improved, while the correlation between the export of capital & technology-intensive products and the industrial structure has been greatly reduced. In the aspect of internal demand, this paper will further refine the classification of the industrial structure of the Shandong Province. Then the paper analyzes the relationship between the internal demand structure and the industrial structure of the province by using the method of Deng-gray-correlation analysis. It is concluded that the adjustment of consumption structure in Shandong Province has a promoting effect on the adjustment of industrial structure. The consumption structure has been improved,while the consumption structure is comparatively at a low level,which hinders the external-demand-driven trade pattern form transforming into internal-demand -driven trade pattern.Based on the above empirical analysis and the situation of Shandong Province,the paper will provide the corresponding suggestions for Shandong Province's foreign trade and industrial structure adjustment from three perspectives: trade structure,industrial structure and demand structure.