Maize Planting Structure Adjustment Of China Under The Background Of Import Of Maize And Substitute

Nowadays,the market of maize presents unbalanced situation that supply exceeds demand in china,which largely increases inventory quantity of maize.The main reason is that the growth rate of domestic consumption of maize is inferior of the growth of production.At the same time,the surge of imports of maize and its substitute,which results from the price difference between domestic and foreign maize,plays an adverse effect on domestic market of maize.In china,the planting area and production increase gradually.Compared with 1978,the planting area of maize owns a growth of 85.97%in 2014.At the same time,along with the progress of agricultural technology,maize yield also increased year by year.Since the implementation of the temporary purchase and storage policy in 2008,the production of maize(215.646 million tons)owns a growth of 30%in 2014.But due to the influence of the domestic economic environment,the maize consumption growth slowed in china.Since 2008,the growth rate of maize production began to grow faster than that of maize consumption.Since 2010,china has become a net import country because of the price difference between domestic and foreign maize.In 2012,the import quantity of maize has reached 5.207 million tons,while the export quantity of maize was only 0.257 million tons.Since 2012,the import quantity of maize fell down but still keep the high level,and the export quantity of maize continued to decline.Due to the effect of domestic tariff quota,domestic processing enterprises start to seek substitutes of maize in order to save cost.Barley,sorghum and DDGS began to get the favor of domestic processing enterprises.In addition,agricultural commodities,including maize,have lost its comparative advantage.Thus,according to the situation that maize supply exceeds its demand,the increase of the import quantity of maize and the principle of comparative advantage,the planting structure of maize needs to be adjusted and optimized.In other words,some areas,without comparative advantage,should decrease the planting area of maize and modest imports can meet domestic demand and reduce the pressure on domestic resources and environment.Firstly,this paper describes the present situation of maize supply and demand in china,mainly including the general situation of maize production,consumption and import in china.Research on the present situation of maize production in china includes time dimension and space dimension.Research on maize consumption includes feed consumption,industrial consumption and food consumption.Then,this paper calculates the comparative advantage of maize in china.In addition,this paper studies the influence factors of maize planting structure in china through the provincial panel date model.Finally,this paper studies maize planting structure adjustment scheme under the background of the import of maize and its substitutes,through agricultural policy analysis model of china.Finally,draw the following conclusion:(1)Some factors,such as income ratio of per acre,the mechanization level,net imports,demand for maize and the temporary purchase and storage policy,have effects on maize planting structure.The effect of the mechanization level on the maize planting proportion B(every province's maize planting proportion of crops)is not significant.(2)Compared with the base period,in three kinds of Simulation scheme,the planting area of maize respectively decreases 1.21%,10.29%,and 14.22%.(3)From the perspective of major provinces of maize,maize planting area of every major provinces of maize reduce differently.The provinces of smaller change concentrate in the northeastern provinces,inner Mongolia and Hebei,and the provinces of larger change concentrate in Yunnan,Shaanxi,Gansu,Anhui,Guangxi,Hubei.(4)From the regional perspective,area of south China,northwest and southwest should decrease maize planting area to a great extent.The decrease degree of maize planting area of northeast and north China is smaller.(5)Crops such as coarse cereals,rice and wheat,oil crops such as soybean and peanut,and vegetables should substitute maize.(6)Planting structure adjustment can weaken the effect of import to domestic agricultural production price and then stable domestic agricultural production price,and finally safeguard farmers planting benefit.