The Fluctuation Of Maize Import And Export In China

China is the world’s second largest maize exporter after the United States at one time oranother, and the main maize importer, its maize production, consumption and the volatility inthe international trade will directly affect the world maize trade pattern. China’s maize tradepresents larger fluctuation after reform an opening up, its status shifts many times between thenet exporter and importer. As the increasing connection between China’s maize supply in thedomestic and international market, the fluctuation of the maize import and export mayinevitably bring adverse effects to the domestic and international maize market. Theincreasing volatility increases the government difficulties to regulate the supply and demand,to stabilize the price. When the volatility is not synchronized with the supply and demand inthe domestic market, the maize price will become more abnormal, the contradictions betweenthe supply and demand will become more seriously. For the international market, thefluctuations make world’s other major trading nations not to predict international tradedemand of China’s maize is unpredictable, and may result maize prices turmoil in theinternational market. So, the analysis of China’s maize trade fluctuation characteristics andreasons, the exploration of inherent laws and influence factors, the study on the policies ofhow to regulate and control the volatility, all these have important theoretical and practicalsignificance to steady develop the China’s maize trade, to guarantee the safety of maizeindustry and to develop the national economy.This paper applies the basic theories of economics, statistics and international trade, etc.according to the research thinking of "know fluctuations-analysis fluctuations-regulate-fluctuations",bases on the analysis on the world maize trade pattern, China’s maize importand export trade development process, the advantages and disadvantages of China’s maizeparticipate in the international market competition, firstly measures China’s maize import andexport trade fluctuation cycle with the speed measuring method, compares with othercountries, understands the general status of China’s maize import and export trade fluctuationcomprehensively. Secondly, this paper makes the correlation analysis to the influence factorsof China’s maize import and export trade fluctuations with the fluctuation produce theory, using panel data, gravity model equation and market constant market share model analysis theinfluence factors and the fluctuations of China’s maize import and export trade. Basing onabove analysis, this paper finally clears the research thinking of how to regulate and controlthe trade fluctuations, proposes corresponding measures to regulate and control China’s maizeimport and export trade fluctuations.The main conclusions of this paper include:(1) there are both advantages anddisadvantages when China’s maize participates in the international competition and itscompetition is not strong. The advantages main includes market location, non-transgenic,potential of maize yield and quality; the disadvantages main includes production costs,product quality and market liquidity. After the calculation, finds that China’s maizecompetition is very weak, and this situation presents a descend tendency.(2) After calculatingthe maize import and export trade period of waves from1961-2010with speed estimate, findsthat the maize import and export trade in our country appears a wave every4.45years, andthis is very short than the other countries.(3) The endogenous conduction influencing factorswhich are closely related to our countries’ maize trade include production, consumption andprice, the external impact factors which are closely related to our countries’ maize tradeinclude natural disasters, import and export trade policies, purchasing power levels,transportation costs, exchange rates and international competitiveness, etc.(4) Constructs thegravity model equation of China’s maize import and export, finds that the influence factorswhich have positive correction to China’s maize exit dimensions mainly include China’s GDPand the maize importer’s GDP, the influence factors which have negative correction mainlyinclude both sides’ national income per head, China’s maize exports average price, and theRMB exchange rate, the distance and the common boundary. China’s per capita of nationalincome elasticity coefficient is11.9072, China’s maize exporter’s national income per capitaelastic coefficient is1.1017, China’s maize exports average price elastic coefficient is7.3101.The influence factors which have positive correction to China’s maize importdimensions mainly include the exporter’s GDP and domestic maize production, China’s maizedomestic prices, China’s maize import scale, the influence factors which have negativecorrection mainly include China’s gross domestic product and domestic national income perhead, China’s maize import average price, maize prices in international market, exchangerates, the distance between the trade partners. China’s domestic per capita national incomeelasticity coefficient is13.1771, China’s maize import average price elastic coefficient is0.6499, and the domestic price of China’s maize elastic coefficient is3.2969, the internationalmarket price elastic coefficient of maize for2.8314.(5) China’s export competitiveness effectmaintains strict change synchronicity with the export, and has great contribution, the size of the market effect on the export of China’s maize fluctuation mainly shows promote growth orslowed reduce, the market distribution effect mainly shows restrict growth or aggravationreduce, the gravitational effect mainly maintains strict change synchronicity with the export,and has great contribution, the demand effect has consistent change with China’s maizeimport.The paper suggests some countermeasures to control international trade fluctuation ofChina’s maize are: First, strengthen the related research on maize international tradefluctuations; Second, establish monitoring and early warning systems of maize abnormalfluctuations of international trade; Third, give full play to maize futures market pricediscovery function to regulation of the domestic market price of corn; Fourth, improveChina’s maize production motivation and yields to enhance and supply capacity; Fifth,coordination reasonably consumer demand; Sixth, improve effectively the internationalcompetitiveness of China’s maize; Seventh, develop sustainable maize international tradepolicy; Eighth, accurately grasp the timing and scale of international trade of China’s maize,and coordinate properly corn export quotas.The main innovation points of this paper include:(1) Divides the fluctuation cycle ofChina’s maize export and import with the speed method, divides China’s maize export andimport to elven cycles with the method of peak-peak, at the same time, analyses thecharacteristics of the cycles.(2) Analyses the reasons of China’s maize weak internationalcompetitiveness with the national diamond Model, the reasons include less China’s maizeproduction factor endowments, high domestic demand, underdeveloped relevant and auxiliaryindustry, small production scale and improper management.(3) Constructs China’s maizeimport and export gravity model equation by using the panel data, analyses the factors whichinfluence China’s maize trade scale, and the different factors has big different influence effect,educe income elasticity coefficients for China’s and trade copartners’ per national income tothe China’s maize import and export scale, and price elastic coefficients for China’s maizeimport average price, domestic price and international price to the China’s maize importexport scale.